Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 26 marzo 2020
Then the pandemic will be economic
The scenario in which the pandemic hit unexpectedly was too conditioned by economic and financial factors oriented to the immediate result, without the necessary long-term planning and, above all, without the due forecast of emergency situations. If the wars are limited to critical and important areas, but peripheral as far as the production cycle is concerned, the question of the health emergency was thought in the same areas, or even more marginal, and small financial sums were destined to it: a sort of charity for wash the consciences of rich countries; which, however, have found themselves unprepared for the onset of health crises, not only like the current one, but also limited to well-defined borders. The emergency problem is thus treated with improvised and unprepared solutions, which reveal all the inconsistency of the current governments of the globe. Parallel to the health emergency, the economic and financial emergency began: the liquidity crisis of industry and commerce risks making as many victims in companies and entrepreneurial companies, which have found themselves totally unprepared in the face of the collapse in consumption. For society, globally, which could emerge from the pandemic, the first need will be to rebuild its social fabric and its organization, to avoid dangerous drifts in an anti-democratic sense. An aversion to state or supranational institutions, as in the European case, incapable of drawing up a project sufficient to contain the disaster, could only favor those sovereign and nationalist instances, which are expressions of anti-democratic sentiments. Furthermore, the adoption of technological tools to control the population, which is already undergoing, for now, the right limitation of some rights, could become, if exchanged for tools necessary beyond the limit of the pandemic, an unrepeatable opportunity for the taking of the power of some political parties. These dangers can only be exited with total success over the pandemic, which can restore lost freedoms and with a financial policy suitable to contain the difficulties and, at the same time, favor the revitalization of the economy. This means financial instruments capable of reaching all the ganglia of society and not concentrated in some social and geographical areas and that these instruments do not become a burden for the future, that is, they are not bearers of too high a debt borne by the sectors most unfortunate of society, as the Greek case has taught. The idea of financing instruments focused on the pandemic problem, which are being proposed in Europe, seems to be a suitable solution for the purpose; but the opposition of some countries traditionally too tied to budget rigidity, is likely to be a cause capable of holding back the development of the most important area for world trade. If the European Union is unable to reach an agreement internally, a financial war will ensue between China and the USA, to option access to the European market. The end of the Union in the face of this scenario becomes even secondary, if compared to its consequences, the first of which would be the failure of the ideals of freedom and respect for civil rights, which were the engine of the birth of Europe. The short-sightedness of Germany and Holland is likely to harm themselves first, but the victims on the ground, then, would be many others.
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