The absence of Kim Jong-un continues

Kim Jong-un's absence has continued since April 11, when the North Korean leader chaired the workers' party central committee meeting; after this date there is no official version of his condition and health. However, the situation does not present a novelty: in 2014 he was not present for six weeks and then reappeared with the aid of a walking stick. Unofficial reports on the health of the Pyongyang leader, even prior to this circumstance and from various secret services, have always been assessed negatively. A fact deemed significant was the unusual absence from two events, which are considered important in the official North Korean commemorations: the anniversary of the birth of the founder of the regime Kim Il-sung, grandfather of Kim Jong-un and the anniversary of the foundation of the armed groups, which according to the historical North Korean version, defeated the Japanese army. The hypotheses about the fate of Kim Jong-un are the most diverse: from an operation due to cardio-vascular reasons, following the leader's obesity and smoking problems up to an alleged vegetative state due to a serious illness and also in one case the possible death was predicted. There were also contrary rumors that justified the absence with the reason for a convalescence, which would be about to end and that, consequently, the return to the scene of the North Korean president would be imminent. The situation has however favored some reflections on the possible succession, should the North Korean President not return to occupy his office or have an impediment. There are two most likely possibilities relating to the succession: Sister Kim Yo Jong and 70-year-old Choe Ryong Hae, vice president of the powerful State Affairs Commission, the organization that controls the most important apparatuses in the country, those that manage the administrative sectors, economic and political background of North Korea. Making a prediction for the possible succession is not easy, if, on the one hand, the culture of the hermit country is deeply imbued with aspects that refer to Confucianism and, therefore, would favor a male figure, the power of Pyongyang is based on the importance of the family in power. In addition to this aspect, Kim Jong-un's sister can rely on the support of personalities placed in power by her brother and who occupy very important positions in the sectors of the armed forces and the administration of the country. Kim Yo Jong has also shown over time that he knows how to move in international circles, both within the circles of party leaders. In addition to the internal dynamics, however, we must also evaluate what the Chinese attitude will be, the only country that can boast a solid influence on North Korea. In Beijing's strategic plans, the presence of North Korea continues to be a vital point, to avoid the reunification of the two Koreas into one large nation, which would probably fall under US influence. For China, the contraindications are to find Americans on Chinese borders and that, equally important to see created a democratic and liberal state subject, with great productive and economic capacity, able to compete on the most valuable productions with communist capitalism. In fact, although the cost of a possible reunification of Korea, in an initial phase could be heavy for Seoul, with a long-term project and the support of the USA, we would see the birth of a country that could integrate the great technological capacity to the great availability of labor force, at least initially at low cost, a mix that Beijing cannot fail to consider dangerous for its economy. Meanwhile, the official sources of the country say that North Korea has no ongoing contagions related to covid 19, but the situation would be very serious and the population has tried to make food supplies, albeit in the context of serious supply problems due to scarce stocks and the compression of the country's production capacity. The scarcity of the available swabs has allowed a very limited control of the population and the penalties due to the problem of nuclear installations has aggravated a situation of the health system that has gone from excellence to very low quality and quantity standards in a few years. A further hypothesis on the absence of the North Korean president has been that which has contracted the infection, but as for the other possibilities there is no official news, but every day that the absence continues the sensation of the presence of a serious problem becomes more and more a concrete possibility, with the inevitable questions about the future of the country and regional balances.