Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 8 giugno 2022

The problem of Ukrainian wheat used by Russia for its own purposes.

 Speculation on Ukrainian wheat, to reduce the shortage of reserves of African countries, hides a series of problems that make it functional to a series of conflicting interests, not only of the parties involved, but also of international actors, such as Turkey, which pursue their own purposes. The Russian press says that Moscow and Ankara, thanks to the mediation intervention of the United Nations, have reached a preliminary agreement to allow the export of Kiev's genus through a maritime corridor departing from the port of Odessa. The first condition is the demining of the port of Odessa, formally to ensure maximum safety for ships leaving the Black Sea, however the Kremlin's intention is clear: to free the Odessa coast from the threat of marine bombs to prepare and favor a landing of the Russian military; in addition, another rule imposed by Moscow is to inspect merchant ships to avoid any transport of weapons for the Ukrainian armed forces. The fears of Kiev can only be founded, Putin intends to use future famines in an instrumental way to remove the legitimate Ukrainian defenses of Odessa, this is a method used several times by the Kremlin, which is now totally unreliable on its promises. Turkey also moves in a similar way: the bad economic situation imposes distraction strategies towards the Turkish people, international activism is functional to cover the poor administration of the country's economy, to seek diplomatic relevance, which also serves to cover the moral defeat given by the US willingness to include the countries of Sweden and Finland in the Atlantic Alliance, to which Ankara is against because it considers them a refuge for Kurds. Turkish support in the wheat negotiation is fundamental for a country now isolated on the international scene like Russia and precisely through Ankara, Moscow is also trying to blame a possible failure of the project on the opposition of Ukraine, certainly not convinced by the possibility of to discard Odessa from maritime defenses, in this case it would be a natural consequence for the Kremlin to blame Kiev for the failure to supply cereals to African countries; even if the evidence of the facts is there for all to see it should be remembered that most African and Asian countries did not take an official position against Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine and would probably not recognize Russian responsibility for the lack of grain supplies . Along with this tactic, Putin argues that the food deficit cannot fall on the special military operation, but that this, in addition to having started with the coronavirus epidemic, is due to Western sanctions against Russia. The numbers of lost exports, however, say quite the opposite: Ukraine, before the conflict, held a market share equal to ten per cent of the world total of wheat and corn, a very significant share in an already difficult global food situation. due to scarcity of water for irrigation and famine. There are currently 22.5 million tons of cereals, which have been blocked since the conflict began. The means that allow food to be taken out of the country are only those by rail, especially through Poland, but there are objective difficulties that limit the quantities of transport, including the reduced capacity of the trains and the narrow gauge of the Ukrainian railways, which forces the transshipment of cereals once they arrive in Europe. The Ukrainian president predicted that, should the conflict continue, the quantity of blocked cereals could rise to about 75 million tons in the autumn and admitted that maritime corridors are needed for export: at the moment the Kiev talks on the 'argument are underway not only with Turkey and the United Nations, but also with the United Kingdom, Poland and the Baltic nations, precisely to reduce rail transport. However, there remains the absence of a dialogue with Russia, which, not even the seriousness of the problem of hunger in the world, is able to unblock. On the contrary, this very argument could have constituted a starting point for developing a common discourse to start on the road, if not of peace, at least of the ceasefire, but the Russian arrogance once again showed its true intention not to stop. facing nothing to achieve their illegal goals, according to the principles of international law.

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