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mercoledì 4 febbraio 2026

How China is preparing its domestic front to meet international challenges

 In the current climate of profound international uncertainty, which has developed due to the changing conditions of US intentions regarding global geopolitics, including the presence of war in Europe and profound instability in the Middle East, China is pursuing an internal reorganization aimed at making it increasingly loyal to its President Xi Jinping, to ensure a firm Chinese posture capable of increasing its weight in global politics. The need to standardize the views of the ruling classes is being pursued through a series of internal crackdowns, involving high-ranking military officials and party officials from the highest to the lowest levels. The history of investigations against Chinese military personnel is a constant in the People's Republic of China and is based on accusations of disciplinary violations; in reality, these have always been cases of insubordination to party directives, and the recent cases, involving the dismissal of two very high-ranking generals, are nothing new: Xi Jinping requires absolute loyalty to avoid compromising adherence to party directives and the potential consequences for the possible methods of fighting. These provisions, however, should not mislead us regarding a possible negative impact on the Chinese armed forces. It is certain that in the long term, which is instrumental in a possible invasion of Taiwan, the changes at the top of the military are an investment in even greater political indoctrination and therefore in the loyalty of the armed forces. It should be kept in mind that Chinese investments in armaments are increasingly substantial: the navy has developed expansion plans that should bring Beijing's aircraft carriers to nine by 2035, and the growth of its nuclear arsenal will reach at least a thousand warheads by 2030. These developments could accentuate the American disengagement from European territory to focus militarily on the Chinese seas, defending the sea lanes, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. While the attitude on the military front is particularly severe, its attitude towards political and civil society is no less so. In 2025, more than a million people were investigated, formally for corruption, a phenomenon that is still all too present in China's political fabric, but which has often concealed political misconduct, which must be interpreted primarily as forms of dissent at various levels. The number of people under investigation in 2025 is the highest since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, and the sixty percent increase compared to just two years earlier is particularly significant. A particularly notable feature is that, currently, China is not experiencing a power struggle, but rather that these numbers of people under investigation relate to the Communist Party's increasingly ironclad efforts to maintain rigid discipline in the country. One cannot help but suspect that this is a tactic fiercely inspired by the President and pursued through his most loyal aides. The impression is that Xi Jinping does not want to be caught unprepared domestically, aiming to maintain an increasingly solid situation at home and thus be able to face international challenges without further ado. This is not a possibility, but a certainty that the West will have to carefully evaluate before undertaking any relationship with China, which will increasingly be a monolith that will be very difficult to undermine.

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