Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 11 aprile 2013

Confirmed the presence of Al Qaeda in the Syrian conflict

In a faction of the opponents of Assad, is emerging contiguity with Al Qaeda. One of the weaknesses of all the forces opposed to the regime in Damascus is the lack of unity, due to deep political and religious differences, but for now the only tie that binds this diverse assemblage is aversion to Assad, for the rest, then, the division is total. Unfortunately, the easier it is forecast that in the event of victory over the regular forces, the ordeal for Syria, it is far from over. The after Assad, in fact, is announced as a potential cause of the continuing violence in different ultimate goals of the faction in the field. If the forces that appeal to a secular and democratic opt for the construction of a state founded on political participation extended to the whole population, the forces of sectarian point to the creation of a caliphate where the only applicable law is the Islamic one. This would skip the electoral transition and get right to the establishment of an Islamic state, an extreme version of the current situation in Egypt. The organization Al Nusra is that part of the Syrian opposition, which has declared belonging to Al Qaeda. The link is with the Islamic terrorist organization that resides on Iraq and that the U.S. considers one of the forces more tough, able to withstand the attacks Americans with a continuous renewal and able, so far, to have conducted more than 600 attacks Iraqi terrorist in the country. The purpose of this organization is to create a caliphate in Syria are able to support a revolt in Iraq with the ultimate goal of uniting the two countries. It is, without doubt, a very ambitious project, which if not met, will leave on the ground a remarkable streak of violence and death. Moreover, already now the military activity of this group is characterized by the brutal violence on enemies and civilians, especially those of Kurdish origin, you want to drive from the territory controlled for in the future full sovereignty over the area, without any possible sources of contrast. It is clear, as thanks to the scenarios of this type, caution the West to provide unconditional support to the rebels is significantly increased. The rest are reflected the concerns of Israel, which has long complaint on its borders suspicious activity by armed groups linked to Islamic extremism. The impression is that the Syrian rebellion got out of hand Western forces, perhaps because of errors of underestimation, perhaps due to lack of knowledge of the diverse fabric that makes up the opponents of Assad. The fact is that at the moment, this has resulted in a situation of great uncertainty, both in the real terrain of the battle, where the basic balance between the contenders does not produce advances in favor of any, encouraging, however, the survival of Assad, which could be still seen as the lesser evil by Western countries. In fact, although certainly not influencing a framework of balance because of the alliance with Iran, the permanence of the regime in Damascus, however, could be evaluated more positively than a radical caliphate, in fact ruled by Al Qaeda. It is difficult to evaluate a decision, which explains the stillness of the great powers faced with a particularly difficult situation and on which is grafted the protection of special interests, as evidenced by the attitude Russian, aimed at protecting the possibility of maintaining its only naval base in the Mediterranean. But the feeling is that to see the problem solved Syria will have to go a long time and, above all, the solution will come from internal dynamics, on which the influence of the West or the United Nations will be able to very little.

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