Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 18 aprile 2013

North Korean crisis: overtures from Pyongyang

North Korea seems to be open to dialogue. While in a non-compliant certainly Pyongyang, leaves aside the threats and belligerent attitude to seek a possible way out through negotiations. This seems to be the will of the National Defense Commission, the state body that requested the reopening of negotiations. Of course the requests are not acceptable in easily, but analysts said it is still a beginning, which could prove encouraging. The starting of the negotiations are the withdrawal of sanctions issued by the UN Security Councils during the recent nuclear test together to stop the joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States. In practice this is a first response to the appeal made by the U.S. Secretary of State, Kerry, during his visit to South East Asia North Korea had asked the country a different attitude to define the crisis. While at first glance the answer is anything but helpful in Pyongyang, the mere fact that there has been an exchange without the usual threats, is a sure step forward and is viewed positively by both the U.S. and China. While Seoul rejects North Korean proposals, and could not be otherwise, on the grounds that the North Korean demands are absurd and inadmissible, analysts note that the date scheduled for the end of the joint military exercises is getting closer, and this could be seen by Pyongyang as a starting point because it presented to its people as substantial acceptance of at least one of the requests. Of course it will be more difficult to accept what is called the sovereign right to space exploration, in the name of which it has developed missile technology to Pyongyang and that the UN has expressly prohibited. But China, the U.S. and South Korea will have to carefully evaluate the mental element of the crisis: North Korea will not be able to close the game losing the image, then some form of concession must be provided. Also because the reverse of Pyongyang on claims of nuclear war could mean the need to break with the state of siege undergone by the country too and take advantage of the emergency situation may lead the system to a backlash rash. The situation should be tackled with the greatest possible moderation and as long as required, without sudden acceleration, the worst of the crisis seems to have passed and the story seems parabolic segment in descending order. The impression is that the regime in Pyongyang is aware that no request will be granted, but it's party firing up not to ruin their reputation inside. The next steps will certainly be more conciliatory, the keynote is to have started a dialogue form. Probably the fear of the dissolution of the state, in case of conflict has put Pyongyang and firmness in the U.S., supported by greater international experience have been right in maintaining a calm demeanor but all in all, basically condescending. This has been possible thanks to the support of China, which has always taken a cautious attitude but hostile toward North Korea. However, we are only at the beginning and the end of the crisis is still far away, much will also depend on the attitude that Seoul will choose to take: whether to keep willful conduct or, conversely, show openings to Pyongyang.

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