Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 6 maggio 2013
Syria: Israel behind the attack is the confrontation with Iran
With the dreaded direct intervention by Israeli military in the civil war in Syria, the enlargement of the contagion of war to a larger part of the Middle East is now, sure thing. Indeed, the current situation is likely to be only a first step, which may follow other even more significant, so as to determine a deflagration even wider. The Israeli air force hit with two different attacks on Syrian territory, conventional arms depots near Damascus, so that their content was going to reinforce the militia Hezbollah, which they could use missiles destroyed to affect the territory of Israel from bases in southern Lebanon. Necessary to question the real reasons that led to the decision of the Syrian government to Assad to authorize the movement of highly sophisticated weapons to the militias Scythian: with a decision like that Israel's response was a foregone conclusion, so this effect can not be calculated, unless the directive is not started from Tehran, which for reasons of its strategy, pushed to move the arms, for fear of losing them, to their allies in Lebanon. From the point of view of Assad, however, may have been more convenient, be the victim of an Israeli attack, to use this factor to your advantage. From the point of view really closed it is undeniable that Syria is the victim of an act of war not declared by a foreign power, also the fact that this power is Israel, worse, if possible, the picture: in fact, the entire Arab world, also that traditionally averse to Damascus, has demonstrated its opposition to the use of military force in Tel Aviv. For Assad, an important point. But also from the internal point of view the Israeli attack was condemned by the opposition in the fight, as framed as undue interference on the part of the Zionist state. For the Government of Damascus, also, it was easy to say that Israel is acting behind the forces that want to overthrow the legitimate government. This statement may have some grip in certain areas of the world growth and may trigger a dangerous escalation by the Israeli state. On the political assessments of Tel Aviv is more complex to make an analysis. What moved the Air Force is to be found mainly in the fear that sophisticated weaponry arrived in the hands of danger physically closer to the state of Israel: Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Tel Aviv, paradoxically, the weapons were less dangerous in the hands of Assad, who was bombed because it was no longer only a sufficient guarantee on the management of military arsenals. On the question that Israel is behind the opponents of the regime in Damascus, however, there is no doubt about the neutrality of Tel Aviv in front of the civil war, or rather the attitude of Israel does disorientation due to the change of a status quo that was considered well established. Behind the Israeli action must be read also coordination with the U.S., which can not be strangers to the action, and which can also be interpreted as a dress rehearsal of the preventive action against Iran, which for some time has kept analysts the international scene. Tehran is a significant player in the Syrian issue, which has long ties with Assad, which is considered a strategic ally of paramount importance, has become gradually more and more narrow, so much to do suspect that the time in power of the dictator of Damascus is due only to ' Iranian assistance. And it is probably this factor that could start the confrontation between Israel and Iran, in the neutral ground of Syria, proceeding with a preemptive strike against the research on the atomic bomb in Iran.
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