Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 7 maggio 2013
The evolution of the situation in Syria
After the raids carried out by its military aviation, Israel, through its government maintains absolute silence about the incident, it is working with Syria, but not official, so as not to escalate the situation. The position of Tel Aviv is one of the absolute neutrality with regard to Syrian civil war and indeed, it is known that with the Assad government had established a tacit coexistence, which guaranteed the country from the Israeli side of its borders. As for the Arab Spring, which brought to power governments of sectarian Islamic worst predictions coming true the Israeli government, the feelings of Tel Aviv for these revolts were never benevolent, why put in crisis status quo in which the country Star David had found its stability. It did not matter that they were swept away dictators to Israel was interested in peaceful coexistence with their Arab governments, even if they were anything but democratic. In fact, the then democratically elected governments have betrayed the very essence of the riots, using the power conferred by the people in an equally authoritarian, but this time from the religious point of view. It seems so sincere, the Israeli government when it says that the military acts committed against deposits of conventional weapons in the vicinity of Damascus were carried out, not to facilitate or help the rebel forces, how to prevent sophisticated weaponry could end up in the hands of Hezbollah, and then threaten the state of Israel from southern Lebanon. For Assad, not be forced to engage in a conflict, or just make reprisals with Israel is essential, because the air is the only weapon that allows him to military superiority against the rebels and can not be engaged at the same time against Tel Aviv. In addition, the overwhelming superiority of the Israeli forces would not allow aviation Syrian emerge unscathed from a comparison. The dictatorship of Damascus has therefore a vested interest in maintaining relations with Israel in the most peaceful possible, beyond the public statements issued for the consumption of the regime's propaganda. More interesting will check the action that will carry on Tehran, which is definitely behind the attempts to transfer arms to Hezbollah militias births. For its part, Israel has every interest that the Syrian War remains confined within the territorial limits of the Syrian state and does not widen, first of all to Tel Aviv and then to Lebanon and Iraq, due to the massive presence of population growth. This danger is given by the evolution that has taken the conflict, which started as a request for greater democracy in the wake of the Arab Spring and became religious confrontation between the two major souls of Islam: Shiites and Sunnis. Israel does not want its borders yet another Islamic confessional state but can not afford to pass no judgment on Arab affairs to the public do not appear what it interference can trigger diplomacy in the Middle East and the Gulf countries. In this scenario highly unstable, the U.S. is pursuing a diplomatic plan type in some ways bold. Washington seeks a union of Sunni countries, which could include the countries of the Persian Gulf traditional American allies and Turkey, which could lead to the Government of the Syrian opposition parties more moderate, but still adverse to the Scythians, to remove the country from 'Iranian influence, which also constitutes a safeguard for Israel and Lebanon. It is an ambitious project that Tehran would lead to a much more effective isolation of UN sanctions and regional stability favorable to the USA. To do this and get the most immediate pacification can be thought, however, to avoid the vengeance of religious type that could be triggered in Syria and would not enable the peace necessary to the survival of the project.
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