Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 5 giugno 2013

Syria: the evidence of the use of chemical weapons could change the course of the conflict

Exist several witnesses the break-in of the dreaded use of chemical weapons in the war in Syria. Several medical evidence from autopsies and symptoms recorded on injured prove the use of sarin nerve gas that affects the nervous system. About the authors the use of this chemical weapon, the use of which are under threat of direct intervention in the conflict by the United States, there is no certainty, however, the source connected to bombs dropped from the sky, might suggest the suspicion to the regular forces related Assad, who have, unlike the rebels, helicopters and military aircraft. The fact that, for now, this was all in all episodes of limited use leads to the hypothesis on a small scale, which points at the same time is to threaten the rebels, relying on the possibility of a more massive, is to test the behavior West front of noteworthy episodes still content. What had been called the red line impassable by U.S. President Obama, who had to determine whether or not the American armed intervention in the war in Syria, stood precisely on the use of chemical weapons, whose arsenal of Damascus turns out to be one of the most provided. Now exist then the material evidence of the use of these deadly weapons, from both French laboratories, that the publication of a report by the United Nations Commission of Inquiry, which monitors war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria. The U.S. has long are controlling the situation, but give the impression of not having a safe desire to want to intervene; impossible to cover the UN to vote against some of Russia and China in the Security Council, aggravates the questions Washington over a possible military mission, which would be in too many unknowns, in a situation far more difficult than that found in Libya. But alongside the United States, there would be the activism of Great Britain and France, more likely to enforce the ban on the use of chemical weapons. The decision of a possible intervention is also levied on the role of Israel, author of military actions against Hezbollah in Syria and Iran's presence alongside Assad, to which is added Moscow, through the provision of anti-aircraft weapons to Damascus, who seems also to acquire new combat aircraft. These factors exacerbate the framework of the material possibility of what it was, if he was to occur, the planned intervention, to be implemented through air raids, with the exclusion of the use of ground troops. The western hesitancy to an action conducted before a permit to the Assad regime to mount a defense, capable of making very difficult any air operation in the skies Syrians. The impact on the American public would be huge in case of loss of personnel and equipment umpteenth conflict away from the U.S.. The question of the use of chemical weapons, on the other hand can not be dismissed with the fact that there has been limited use: while their use certificate, makes it clear that the regime is now induced to use them and what may be the 'decisive element for the final fate of the conflict. If Assad succeeds in dealing with the American threats and win the conflict unpunished due to the use of chemical weapons, is to change the picture of stability, even if precarious, a region that includes Israel, where the overall picture is compounded by the fact of a stay in power for an ally of Tehran and Hezbollah, a factor that until recently seemed on the verge of being first removed. To evaluate the behavior which intend to follow as a result of this news, the Gulf monarchies, until now engaged in the first person in aid to the rebels.

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