Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 11 settembre 2013
Syria: the proposal diversionary and non-viable
The solution that stops at the time, American military action against Syria , which began as a proposal seemed improvised , allowing a recovery to the role of diplomacy , which , it seems, all content , thus avoiding that the events falling. The USA, which had practically forced yourself to threaten the bombings against Syrian targets , can currently avoid a new military commitment , which would have unpredictable consequences , and , at the same time, they can say that the threat of force has forced Assad to yield on the issue of chemical weapons. Russia, which has immediately made a promoter of the proposal, claiming his return in a leading role in the diplomatic arena , showing unusual wisdom , suited to its goals : to protect Assad and maintain its naval garrison in the Mediterranean, the ' UN unexpected finds a way to exit a chronic apathy , bordering on utter failure in carrying out its task, the regime in Damascus prevents any risk of the U.S. war in peace , and may continue its civil war. As you can see , beyond the positive fact , that the rockets will remain firm on their launch pads , the situation of compromise , which are very fragile , which has been created , it is convenient to most of the parties involved , who are granted the valuable time and unexpected to gain time . However, this international break of hostilities does not stop the continuation of the internal conflict , a situation that is blatantly passed over in silence . Having established the fact that Washington is not interested in entering the contest taking place on Syrian soil , for a variety of reasons, even partially understood , one can not detect as found in parallel with the delivery of chemical weapons has not been developed a solution that can stop the internal conflict and bring relief to the Syrian people . No state or supranational entity has been able to think and propose a way that could lead to a ceasefire , allowing the opening of negotiations for resolving the Syrian issue . What is perceived is that it was only important to avoid international involvement in the light of the sun, because it is clear that their respective states are acting in a more or less hidden in the conflict according to their guidelines , without taking into account this potential situation is generated in the development of the civil war in Syria. The proposal to ask Assad to hand over the Syrian chemical arsenal is uncertain, as unfeasible due to logistical reasons insurmountable. The estimated amount of these weapons is between 500 and 1000 tonnes, stored in at least eighty stores located throughout Syria , including , probably , even in areas controlled by the rebels. In order to collect these arsenals is required truce that includes a rather long time , a condition unworkable without a peacekeeping force on the ground. Moreover, even if Assad decides to deliver those arsenals in the area under its definite influence , there should be the same as the safety of the staff responsible for withdrawal and the simultaneous control of the allocation of chemical weapons is impossible to ensure without an agreement with the rebels . This situation, which certifies the impossibility to proceed to the proposal from the disposal of chemical weapons , is the best guarantee for Assad to keep these arsenals despite having joined in an almost instantaneous to the proposal. It is clear that these considerations have been made by all international actors involved and based on nothing but a proposal has been accepted as a last resort to avert a crisis now imminent . If , however, in the short term has earned time, the problem of chemical weapons , without a delivery of arsenals within a reasonable time , will resurface in a timely manner and the continuation of the Syrian War will continue to be an insurmountable obstacle. We are thus faced with two situations that , despite having split off , for convenience , especially , inherent to reasons of the USA, to return to latch in such a manner as to become inseparable . At that point, if diplomacy will not have made strides to arrive at a solution that will at least stop the conflict , which remains , it should be remembered , the central question with respect to chemical weapons , the situation will start again from the beginning , which is compounded by the number of the victims , which will be grown , such as refugees and regional instability perhaps destined to spread beyond the borders of the Middle East .
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