Politica Internazionale

Politica Internazionale

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martedì 3 settembre 2013

The outcome of the vote in the U.S. Congress is far from obvious in the result of supporting Obama's intentions to punish Assad for the use of chemical weapons. First, in 2014 the U.S. will have an appointment with the mid-term elections , which relate to the 435 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate . The proximity of this legislative consultation endangers the vote in favor action in Syria , especially in the House, whose members are well aware of the negative opinion , which is the most widespread opinion in the American people . The fears of the representatives of non- re-election could affect the vote, even in the same party of the President , although it must be said , the deadline set for over a year, in November 2014 , is expected to mitigate the effects of a decision in favor of the intervention military . Another concern is the division that exists in both groups at the Congress of the respective parties : there are , in fact, the Republicans in favor of the proposal of the President, as the Democrats who are strongly opposed . The fluidity of the situation to Obama imposed so the search for a kind of tactical alliance with the Republican side more sensitive to the pride and prestige that the nation must have the international scene. According to former opponent in the last presidential election , John McCain , a negative vote would be catastrophic for the credibility of the country and open up unexpected in the field of spread of weapons of mass destruction. This opinion coincides perfectly with that of the White House staff , the one that does not match is the entity punitive action against Assad , while Obama is a brief intervention and also limited in its objectives, McCain believes that military action should be more articulate and , above all, be able to put an end to the regime in Damascus . This position is shared by several members of Congress , including some Democrats , but , above all, by the Republicans more convinced . The President , in short, is likely to have voted against both the pacifists, that the " warmongers " , which albeit for opposite reasons find themselves sharing a negative position against the option of the bombardment from the sea. This political scenario , it should be remembered takes place in a highly fragmented parliament , which failed to agree on matters such as the budget , immigration and gun control , the situation is so confusing that even the present nominal majorities , Democrats Senate and Republicans in the room , can provide a certain indication of the outcome of the vote. The appearance of novelty, made ​​from referring the matter to the parliament to have a permit institutional , used to tell the truth more than anything else to bypass surveys , which give the public against the vast majority , can leverage on the need to maintain a international reputation tarnished by the many hesitations and collect , therefore, a vote that provides transverse consent to the political military retaliation . One of the greatest risks to the need for urgency of the response to Assad , is that the debate will dwell and that Congress put limits or adjustments to the mode of intervention. A key issue on which there are several concurring opinions , is to prevent the use of ground forces , possibility always rejected by Obama, but never defined in a clear and safe . You might also be other matters for discussion, so do take to Congress a kind of fatherhood intervention, which would give the nod to Obama , but conditioned by the boundaries imposed by the discussion . However, despite all these considerations, the outcome continues to be not at all obvious , opening up entirely new international scenarios .

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