With Syria back the Cold War

The G-20 is about to usher in part under the sign of a renewed Cold War. We are not in a re- balance of terror , but rather in front of a diplomatic skirmish , however, can have dangerous developments , not so much on world peace , even if objectively the Middle Eastern region is running serious risks under this point of view , the evolution towards a state of general instability , which can have serious impact on the economy and on the geopolitical balance . Putin is aware that Russia is lower than the U.S. and can not objectively prevent by force a military attack against Syria, but it is also aware that Washington is obliged to take this step , otherwise its credibility internationally , in a state of almost total isolation . In terms of international law , Moscow can build on the legislation of the United Nations , which allows an act of war only in self-defense or authorized by the Security Council , of which, however, Russia is one of five states may exercise the right of veto. With the recent statements by Putin, who said he was ready to sanction Syria , it will be determined whether the use of chemical weapons , Russia has been placed in a position of legitimacy , which is not contestable and that allows him to gain time . Even if Moscow were of this opinion alone , it would be in a position of political power , which would allow a diplomatic advantage over the United States . But in the international community , although for different reasons, the majority of the members share the view that the regime in Damascus , although certainly bloody , should only be hit through the UN authorization . This position is shared by the other BRICS countries , from countries belonging to NATO and the then U.S. allies , including Germany and Italy , Great Britain , whose parliament has forced a dishonorable withdrawal from contention Prime Minister Cameron and his , of course, by the opponents of the Americans, like the Iranians , also on the same line stood the UN Secretary General , Ban Ki- Moon, who certainly can not diminish the role of the organization to which it belongs. As you can see is a rather wide audience , which promotes the role he has decided to play Putin and Russia in the game. Even those who are on the side of the United States , for various reasons , does not allow the bank to Washington policy fully convinced , that can assure a support able to overcome the impression of international . France is struggling with the lack of conviction of his electorate , knowing that the country does not have the means to support an action of this magnitude , the Arab League , which could be a valuable support , is anything but united, it was crossed by internal strife , Turkey is too busy to regain lost ground in the international arena and its reasons appear low gloss , is perhaps Australia, but the land of kangaroos, with all due respect , is too great to counter balance the nations unfavorable . This scenario favors , then , who wants to play , even as a leader in defense , waiting for the opponent's move . And that's what he's playing Russia, which in his plan to return again among the world powers , choosing the occasion of the Syrian War a soft approach , based on the expectation and the general thrust of the international scene. With this background it is clear that those who have everything to lose only the United States : if Washington does not practice the threats, its international credibility , already sorely tried , certainly falls , causing a decline of influence that may reverberate in other situations worldwide if , however , the U.S. attack on Syria , but do not give the final blow to the regime, the perception of the United States will be the one of a country that has reduced its military capability, even if Obama says that the attack did not the intention of overthrowing Assad , but only to punish him ; exists, then the third option which is a success rate that will achieve the result of break down the dictatorship in Damascus, come into play in this case the consequences of this fall, due to the composition of the rebel forces , consisting of a mixture of secular movements to address with others to address the confessional, which , in turn , are divided into moderates and radicals . Every possible outlet , except perhaps the establishment of democratic forces only , if what you can verify that puts the U.S. in a very awkward position before the world , as a result of which it will be very easy to move all sorts of criticism in Washington. However, it remains the humanitarian aspect , which is the only one I can pry the White House, although at the time it was discarded in favor of non-interference , an absolute novelty in American foreign policy . Obama can save themselves from negative consequences only if it relies on the will to stop the massacres and violence , but to do what needs to intensify diplomatic action in the first person , so far as it has not been done yet. Means involving all possible subjects , even those unwelcome in lengthy negotiations , to convince Arab countries, strangers to the dispute , to commit their armies in the quality of peacekeepers between the parties and, finally, to find compromise solutions that can not dissatisfy any party. Only then will the American credibility can regain lost ground and put Russia in a secondary position , putting an end to the simulacrum of the Cold War that seems restarted.