Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 11 novembre 2013
The difficult Egyptian elections
Egypt to start the new elections for parliament , scheduled for next year in February or March, as stated by the Egyptian foreign minister . The aim is thus to make the presidential election in early summer. These steps are mandatory for the Egyptian government , which overthrew Mursi and outlawed Muslim Brotherhood , to restore the condition of democracy in the country , a condition often required by the international audience and especially the United States, concerned about the authoritarian turn imposed by the military . If these intentions ninth can only be positive definite , the scenario that opens to the Egyptian country , with practically fixed electoral competition is open to uncertainty. Without the admission of more organized opposition army group , the Muslim Brotherhood , who wanted to impose an interference too pressing of Islamic law into the country, is missing an important share of representation of Egyptian society , which is likely , in addition to not participate in the vote , also to be addressed in a massive way towards extremist positions that can jeopardize the one that precedes the voting process and the consultation itself . The power of mobilization of the Muslim Brotherhood , already extensively tested in the demonstrations against Mubarak , will surely provide a concern for the government and for the military, which must not fall into the trap of repression , even if it seems difficult to avoid that the directors of Islamic radicals , although beheaded by repeated police operations, to renounce their visibility to demand their rights. The feelings of the groups closer to the Muslim Brotherhood , and even many supporters who had voted in the last election , I have received an injustice with the deposition of Mursi and the rejection of any form of cooperation with the new government has done nothing that accentuate the profound differences , exacerbated by episodes of repression very hard. The risk is that the more concrete squares to fill with new events , potentially , have high risks of degeneration , not to mention possible isolated episodes consisting of bombings aimed at throwing the country in terror as a tactic aimed at discouraging the exercise of vote massively, to delegitimize the elections. If this scenario were to occur , in part because of a lack of prevention of the incumbent government , which does not seem to find concrete channels of communication to the members of the brotherhood , a very real possibility could again be the massive presence of the military in Egyptian streets , an element not exactly conducive to the climate of a democratic election . This could be the result of the tactics of the brotherhood for further delegitimization of the elections especially towards the international scene, with the U.S. in the first person , who need to stabilize Egypt , not to add a further element of disturbance in the delicate question of the Middle East. Paradoxically , then , the position is the most difficult of the military, who despite having the power , have to find balance such that no disturbing elements, while maintaining a respectful attitude to democracy. In fact it is a difficult balancing act to be implemented, without adequate response by the opposite parties .
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