Syria towards a new peace conference

The meeting between the U.S. and Russia to agree on the conduct of the peace conference for Syria , scheduled for January 22 , faces a large number of unknowns is difficult to define . The first point is the possible role of Iran, which formally is not among the guests ; Tehran , which is the main ally of Assad 's interest to make their voices heard in a peace conference , for both its geopolitical , both to fit through the front door in an official negotiation of this importance . Washington should not be a problem to an Iranian participation , which should be seen in the renewed relationship between the two administrations , after so many years of hostility, which are taken during the change of government in Tehran and the resumption of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue. For Moscow, there should be no problems on the participation of Iran , Russia is to maintain the status quo and find an ally in Tehran diplomat virtually certain. Other participants should be: the United Nations representative for Syria: Lakdhar Brahimi and representatives of the group of eleven countries that support the moderate opposition coalition . In this group (which includes Great Britain, Germany , Italy, France , Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar , Egypt, Jordan , USA , Turkey ), there are different trends : in fact, the Gulf countries would support the opposition Sunni of fundamentalist , which aims to create at least some areas of the country the Syrian caliphate where the fundamental law must be the sharia. YES understand, then , how the negotiation may already be difficult among the members that they should find a solution with Assad. The evolution of the Syrian war , while maintaining the conflict with Damascus , has created a rift sources of further conflict within the opposition, which sees on opposite sides advocates the creation of a democratic state against those they see , for Syria, a future state of sectarian fundamentalist Sunni matrix . This division has enabled Assad to remain in power , leaving the country in a situation of violence, which has not yet found an outlet . If Kerry flaunts , as always, an optimism , that does not seem justified , others are not of the same opinion , because of the obvious difficulties , present even before you start the negotiation with the regime in Damascus . On the other hand Assad is well aware of this situation, and after the American attack averted by treating chemical weapons , will try , thanks to the support of the Russians and Iranians to gain more time . To do so will have to give on the conditions that Americans and Europeans find most urgent : how the creation of humanitarian corridors and limiting , if not the total catch of the use of heavy weapons. The will of Assad is to go to Geneva to reaffirm its intention not cede power in any way , thwarting the expectations of the democratic opposition pushing for a controlled transition . This was the solution , until some time ago, it was seen as a way out for the dictator and his family , he could hope for in a golden exile , for example in Russia, and was also the preferred solution by the Americans. However, the growth of military power of the Sunni militias , backed by Al Qaeda , has changed the plans of Washington , which has the full guarantee of the maintenance of power by the democratic coalition and sees with concern the shattering of the country with large areas the hands of the fundamentalists , on the Israeli border . With this in mind and with the evolution in the positive sense of the relationship with Tehran, the United States , Assad is, as the lesser evil , even if its a complete victory on the diplomatic level would represent a loss of credibility for Washington. One way out could be a moratorium on the conflict with the natural epilogue of the polls , a solution that would displease completely only Islamist fighters , who at that point could be the subject of a coordinated military action by several countries . Clearly, after any election , any winner would have to accept a period of presence of UN peacekeepers to prevent reprisals and revenge against the losers , who would immediately start a new conflict .