Israel threatened by Al Qaeda

The stalemate that has arisen in Syria, with the stalemate of the negotiations , it creates a situation that is potentially more dangerous for Israel. One possible scenario is that the fall of Assad is not conducive to the rise to power of the Democratic party of the opposition, but the Sunni fundamentalists , including Al Qaeda is the majority shareholder. Up to now to Tel Aviv for protection of their territory was relatively easy , Assad was an enemy only in words , with which flowed peaceful coexistence , the sporadic threats from Hezbollah became increasingly concrete with the launch of missiles , which often ended in the territory desert and Egypt before Mubarak, the military junta then , there has always been the same view on mutual need to control the Sinai only in parenthesis Mursi this coexistence is loose, but the experience in the government of the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have ended. There remained the Gaza Strip where to focus the bulk of the attention and the disparity in military resources and forces in the field allowed a generally easy control . Meanwhile, the activities of Al Qaeda has been underestimated : it is believed that with the elimination of Bin Laden , which is already on the margins of the organization, the terrorist group had been drastically reduced in its operations . So it was not , the advent of the Arab Spring has created considerable space for the insertion of the fundamentalists , who are the best medium for the growth of Al Qaeda. The aggravation of the conflict between Sunnis and Shiites has since been another reason for the expansion of the terrorist group , which has been able to benefit from the aid rush of the Gulf countries , who thought of using the fundamentalists as pawns in their struggle against Assad. Just the Syrian War has allowed the descent into the actual field of Al Qaeda in a war that now threatens national really expand to an entire region crucial for global equilibrium . The plan of the fundamentalists , led by Al Qaeda , is to conquer Syria and then surround Israel. Of course it is an extremely ambitious plan , but one that can drag Tel Aviv in a state of siege continuously, until it is in an asymmetric war of unprecedented dimensions . Such a scenario does not suit any of the countries in the region : the first for the Gulf states , who have lost control of the situation on extremist groups and are likely to get the infection fundamentalist , but outside of the strict rules imposed by their state organizations , within their boundaries , with the prospect of being involved in a front internal dimensions are difficult to predict . Even for Iran this option is desirable , Sunni fundamentalists have exacerbated the religious conflict against the Scythians and Tehran threatens isolation as bad as that imposed sanctions for the nuclear industry. Russia, in turn, fears the contagion Islam in the Caucasus region , and this is the reason of his stonewalling in favor of Damascus in the peace negotiations . But these aspects appear side when compared to a direct threat to Israel. The defense policy of Tel Aviv does not allow defections and this threat is much more practical than the old course of the threats from Iran . In the event of a bombing or missile launch from areas captured by Al Qaeda Syrian possibly the Israeli response would not and should certainly wait to trigger the dreaded spread of the conflict in Syria , in the most delicate . It is no coincidence that in Israel on Syria to keep a low profile, to Tel Aviv , even if you can not say so openly , the best solution is to stay in power for Assad, who has so far secured to the country an attitude of peaceful non- Israeli belligerence . However, the intention of Al Qaeda is to wage a struggle against Israel and identify it as a symbol of belonging to all the Muslims , a smart move that would gain support organization in the Arab world . This trend has been understood for some time by the United States , pushing for an agreement for the creation of two states , a solution to counter, the media plan , the holy war launched by the terrorist organization . With this in mind the attitude of Israel seems short-sighted , too rigid and , above all, without perspective, if not with that , it seems that political fiction , but it is not too much to end up allying with the eternal enemies the Iranians, with the which , by now , they share many interests. At the international level , widening the view over the regional situation , it is clear that the possibility of an encirclement of Israel cares first and foremost the U.S., which because of their alliance with Israel, would be automatically involved, but also the United Nations, which they could not keep their passive attitude and locked by the Security Council on a crisis of this magnitude. The solution is to find a common agreement that has the goal of putting in a position to do no harm fundamentalist groups in Syria and encourage dialogue between the democratic opposition and Assad for the creation of a transitional government , which will open a new phase Syrian in the country . Conversely, the expansion of the war to Israel, with all its consequences , can only become a reality in the coming periods .