Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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venerdì 11 aprile 2014
Russia: the energy weapon is a double-edged
The uncertain situation of the Ukrainian question , threatens to have a significant impact on the supply of Russian gas to Europe. The credit requires that the Russian company Gazprom , from Kiev, net late on payments is clearly a weapon in the hands of the Kremlin, Moscow is not hesitating to use. Retaliation is the closure of the Ukrainian gas pipelines crossing its territory and which pass on supplies to European countries . Russia also report a dangerous lowering of gas reserves in underground storage Ukrainians, this lack has already been used for the European requirements , anticipating , in fact , the closure of the pumping stations announced yesterday . On the energy issue just tip Putin, who sent a letter to European leaders through diplomatic channels , to try to form a common understanding of Ukraine. With this move, the Russian President , might try to split the Western Front , which is , even now , not quite cohesive on penalties applicable to Moscow. In fact, if there is identity of political views in condemning the conduct of Russia, first in Crimea, now the eastern borders of Ukraine, the responses to , there is a wide divergence . The U.S. has reached an almost complete energy independence through increased oil extraction and use of shale gas , while Europe , especially the east , has a very narrow dependence on Russian gas . Even the most industrialized countries in the euro area, such as Germany, France and Italy , although alternative suppliers , depend to a large proportion of the total energy supplied by gas from Moscow. It is understandable that the tactics that Putin is then to leverage on supply difficulties for European countries . It must be remembered that gas supplies , even when Russia was called the USSR , were never interrupted , even in the moments of greatest tension of the Cold War . The division of the Soviet empire and the detachments from Russia , have then generated a number of stakeholders in the production and transportation of raw materials, which may affect the insurance of supplies. Moscow , for its part , has not been able to provide for alternative pipelines that did not use the territory of countries potentially adverse . If Ukraine decides to turn off the taps , the damage is on both sides , for those not receiving the supplies, but also for those who can not sell gas . The Russian economy , since the post-Soviet period , has not developed an adequate industrial base capable of supporting the economy and has focused on facilitating the extraction and sale of raw materials. Just this exclusive economic dependence , which is also its strength , is the target of U.S. sanctions and the action of Kiev. Without alternatives Moscow must yield to his nationalist ambitions , but before doing so must necessarily try to split the Western Front. If Europe , frightened by the lack of gas , is able to soften the USA, Moscow could open glimmers before sitting down at the negotiating table . This aspect could lead to an agreed solution that allows to maintain a solution that leaves the Ukraine in a state of impartiality , that can assure Russia a lack of NATO on its borders . At this stage, this solution would allow a cooling of tension and ward , including through the construction of a federalist constitution of the country of Ukraine , the repetition of the strategy practiced by Putin in Crimea . It is said to be a cause of concern we can not make a profit for peace, even if the U.S. does not seem quite soft and prone to a truce in this regard. Much will depend on the actual concessions that will be made mutually by the two parties . However, apart from geopolitical considerations , the importance of renewable energy is becoming more of a crucial importance for the future world order .
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