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giovedì 8 maggio 2014

The election of the President of Lebanon as an influential factor in the Syrian War

Lebanon threatens the power vacuum in the office of the President of the Republic; the current mandate expires on 25 May, but up to now not be glimpsed solutions that allow the charge to be covered in due time. The last consultation was supposed to be yesterday , but the lack of a quorum , the absence of 60 deputies , due to the boycott of the leaders of Hezbollah, and Syrian supporters in general , resulted in the postponement of the election until 15 May. But even to this date , very close to the natural expiration of the term of office, an agreement appears to be difficult. According to the Lebanese constitution , there is a strict division of institutional positions on the basis of religious affiliation , this is to promote peaceful coexistence among the followers of different faiths who live in the country. If the President of the Republic is up to the Christian Maronite , the prime minister is the prerogative of the Sunni Muslims and the head of the National Assembly , the legislative power , it is up to Shia Muslims . The war in Syria , although it has spread in the land of the cedars, has exacerbated the already deep political differences between denominational trends . Shiites and Sunnis are divided , even by the support and practical material, in and against Assad , while Christians are even contrary to them, due to the different interpretation of the Syrian dictator , seen by some as a protector of the Christian religion in Syria , visual as opposed to that which identifies him as a dictator who denies the political and civil rights and rule through violence . About the election of the president of the republic the Lebanese political forces are divided into two large blocs : Hezbollah and the Assad supporters on one side and the Movement of the future , the party of the Lebanese Forces and the Lebanese Phalange other. For the country , the situation is not new , as has already occurred in 1998 and 2007 because of the delicate institutional balance , endangered by close comparison because of the internal dynamics arising from the war in Syria. The current impasse would be caused by its strategy of wire Syrians who try not to elect the candidate of the Movement of March 14 , belonging to the Movement for the future, Samir Geagea , former star of the civil war , thus putting pressure on the anti- Syrian alliance seek a consensus candidate most . The result could lead to a lower weight for Christians forced to propose a candidate of lesser political weight and that therefore it would weaken the political party of origin. Through the boycott put in place by wire Syrians seek , therefore, to weaken across the anti- Syrian greater control of aid to the Syrian rebels to mitigate and facilitate the action of support for Assad . However, this strategy can be very dangerous in a country very unstable and always wavering between governance and civil war ; undermine the Lebanese constitutional practice could accelerate a recovery of the internal armed confrontation between the opposing parties , in an area in direct contact with u country plagued by civil war , where one of the protagonists , Assad, Lebanese involvement could mean a big help to their cause. The question , apart from the obvious humanitarian implications , should not be underestimated for the territorial contiguity of Israel, which , at that point, you may find yourself committed to defend their territory by Islamic extremists and then intervene , albeit indirectly, in favor of the regime Damascus. Tel Aviv Assad has always been the lesser of two evils , because it has always ensured the peace with the Syrian border and it is possible that Damascus could do lever on this topic in the case of an advance of fundamentalist Muslims. With this in mind, the involvement of the Lebanon war in Syria could go, so for the benefit of Assad. For this reason, the election of a Lebanese president assumes meanings that go far beyond the appearance of domestic policy.

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