Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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giovedì 14 agosto 2014
Iraq divided, solution to the Middle East problem
In anticipation of the future of Iraq rests the fate of a separation in three states, which means the failure of post-colonial perspective, but most of the understanding of the role of the United States Baghdad in the regional chessboard. For Washington state unity of Iraq meant a control over a vast area that was to act as a buffer between Syria and Iran. If Tehran's relations with the White House are on the path of improvement, those with Damascus, even if bad, could find its own purpose in order to stem the advance of radical Sunni militias. The United States, in order to be minor damage, particularly in perspective, should facilitate the division of Iraq into three separate entities, partially solving their problems of geopolitics in the area, but worsening relations with important allies. The three entities that should arise are those relating to the Sunni, Shiite area and finally to independent Kurdistan. The independent Sunni area is essential for the peace of the entire region and for the containment of the extremists: one was in the hands of the moderate Sunni currently remains the only way to defeat radicalism, which could upset the world order, providing a basis tactics of departure for a new season of terror across the western world. To achieve this requires a heavy commitment on the field, but equally challenging will be the one at the political level to mediate between the various trends, among which the followers of the Bath party, that of Saddam Hussein. The insane policy of the central government in Baghdad, which has relegated the Sunnis away from the positions of state power can only be rewarded with a total autonomy, but under a strict alliance with Washington. The independent Shiite area is necessary for many reasons of expediency: the dialogue with the religious opponents is no longer possible within the same state, but can resume their positions on autonomous state recognized each other. But this assumption can be risky for international relations between the United States and some of its allies, such as the Gulf countries, who may see this solution as a concession to Iran, which would inevitably exert its influence on a country's Shiite majority . This scenario would be altered the current balance in the region and also in a broader context, long contested by the Saudis, who sees the gradual rapprochement between Tehran and Washington. For the White House to handle these issues in a context of already deteriorated could be quite complicated. The third level is that of the Kurds, now very close to achieving the objective in a practical way to create a just state is autonomous and independent. This factor has so far been opposed by the United States, despite the fact that the Kurds are their best allies in the region and has been fundamental to defeat Saddam, because they have seen the Kurdish people is a factor of stability inside the jagged ethnic composition of the country; but this goal now seems inevitable for the ambitions of a people who for so long is seeking autonomy far more complete than at present confined within a federal structure where the capital is increasingly seen as a foreign domination. At the end Washington will have to yield to the ambitions of the Kurds and recognize their legitimate expectations of independence, among other things, this will only strengthen their relationships. However, for Americans contraindications are represented by the Turkish grievances and also Iranian, who fear an expansion of Kurdish claims also to the territories of that ethnic group present in their countries and they have always been destabilizing factors for the internal equilibrium. As we see an overall picture not easy to solve, but that requires tight deadlines for action, especially the need to defeat the army of the Islamic state and the Levant. If the weapons in the first instance, are essential, even more will be the ability to extricate policy in such a scenario so highly diversified, where the needs of the various players in the game are often in conflict with each other on multiple levels and ultimately with the same interests as Americans and Westerners. It should be remembered that a short distance continues the Palestinian issue, which, with its increasingly distant solution contributes greatly to the overall confusion general instability of a front that continues to expand.
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