Recession in Germany? Possibility of loosening of European accounts

The possibility that Germany enters recession seems more concrete. An estimate of the German economic institute DIW, said that the stagnation of production and the decline in the gross domestic product, which has registered a negative performance of 0.2% in the second quarter of the year, may aggravate the situation of the locomotive d 'Europe. It could be the combined effect of the international crisis, which led to a reduction in exports, a drop in consumption on the internal market, which declined in August, an event that had not occurred for over a year and a half. Certainly the international scene, with the crisis in Gaza, one of Iraq and, more importantly, the Ukrainian issue, that the sanctions to Russia, have led to a disruption of the flow of German goods to Moscow, have impacted so heavily on the values ​​recorded . But what is most worrying is the decline inside due to negative perceptions of the Germans about the trends of development of the economy of the nation, which also affect the expectations of wages and purchases. The impression is that too much rigor required for the rest of the EU, beginning to weigh on the accounts Germans, which is no longer supported by the international application; in fact, the signs had come for some time, but only a prohibition on imports to Russia, imposed by sanctions decided by Obama, has brought the phenomenon of contraction German uncovered. Accounts that Merkel knew well and which resulted in the great diplomatic activity of the German Chancellor to resolve the crisis in Ukraine. However, it remains the fundamental fact: Germany wants to continue to compress the accounts of other European countries, not to allow a restart of the production of continental competitors, which could restart, however, the cycle of consumption within the EU. This action, justified by the deficit control, exercised absolute and without the necessary distinctions, it begins to backfire Berlin. A greater ability to purchase other EU countries, would broaden the possibilities for German products on the Community market, adjusting the data recessive Germans, who are likely to get worse again with the continuation of the budgetary constraints imposed by Germany itself. The suffering of France and Italy, for example, that with concrete economic values ​​indicating a stagnation, not in the interests of Berlin, but only of the banks, which protect their developments, even by their own investment mistakes. If the audit is now universally accepted, not to initiate inflationary processes, too much compression of expenditures still generates an economic stagnation, which is a phenomenon equally negative, reflecting on industrial production and sale of its products, not to mention the ever-growing phenomenon of unemployment, which in addition to compress the spending power, is likely to trigger dangerous forms of social tension. The control of the expenditure should be divided to facilitate investments, such as infrastructure and contributions to improve productivity, such as research and innovation, which should result in a higher employment rate. A contraction of Germany is not good for the EU, but even if these values ​​fail to persuade Berlin to a softer attitude towards the European accounts, the other countries should undertake initiatives to loosen the limits too hard on their balance sheets. This action, which is always a sine qua non, must be understood as a development of the autonomy of the European Union from taxation too invasive for some members, in this case Germany, towards others. Without a perspective of a political fact, the EU is likely now to be only a controller of accounts on the Berlin Mandate, losing their prerogatives and arousing the suspicion, if not aversion, to wider sectors of European society. The reversal of this trend can only occur by improving the lives of European citizens, through the growth of its income and the quantity and quality of services provided. Conversely, the construction of the Community is bound to implode, even in those countries, like Germany in fact, that could be distinguished by a hilt excessive control of the accounts in the name of a well-being acquired thanks to these decisions. A worsening of the German accounts will only be reflected in the variation of the idea dominant in Germany and open to new perspectives, which if interpreted in the right way, that they can not lift the continental economy.