Ukraine: the elusive tactics of Putin

The Ukrainian issue continues to worsen despite diplomatic efforts to resolve differences. The next meeting of the leaders of Ukraine and Russia, and Putin Poroshenko, guests of the President of Belarus, Lukashenko, in a conference for countries that enter the customs union led by Moscow, does not promise any concrete resolution due to the static of the situation due to the pressure of public opinion in their respective countries. The conditions that have been created have hardened the positions of Moscow and Kiev, which at the time had a reduced room for maneuver, in order to find an agreement. According to some analysts, the two governments can not make concessions to the current behavior and what new risks worsening the conflict. Despite this background, the EU sent three officials at a summit in Minsk, with the intent of finding punished for starting a negotiation. The major diplomatic activism concerns Germany, which is concerned primarily for economic reasons, to mitigate the penalties to Russia and to draw Ukraine into its sphere of influence. Chancellor Merkel has proposed several solutions to avert the conflict starts in a definitive way towards a military solution, from which Kiev would come out hopelessly defeated, but the current scenario has no time for the facilitated this action. The repeated incursions of the Russians means within the boundaries of Ukraine, are obstacles difficult manipulation for diplomatic negotiations and trials of strength for the consumption of the average of the two nations are not that warm the soul. We are thus witnessing such displays of force that does not help any form of negotiation, while the real conflict has already caused more than 2,000 deaths and the destruction of a civilian aircraft. The increasing presence of Russian troops on the side of the separatist pro-Russian eastern Ukraine aggravates a situation, which puts Russia in a more difficult position in front of the international law and leaves the possibility of inclusion of Moscow in the world Western. Probably this is the real intention of Putin, who does not want to be an actor in a scene dominated by the United States, but wants to create a sphere of influence alternative. Although this understanding is possible only on a regional scale, the power of Russia on a territory almost equal to that of the former Soviet Union, is considered by Putin the essential starting point for dealing with the USA and China. In view of the head of the Kremlin Europe should be divided into two parts, not to approve the eastern part to the influence of Washington. It should be remembered that since the last election campaign, Putin has put at the center of its program the rebirth of Russia as a world power; in such a design defections are not allowed, then the desire of Ukraine to join the EU must be fought by all means. The lever of the aspirations of the Russian minorities thread to rejoin the motherland is an indispensable tool for the purposes of the Kremlin. However, the effects of the sanctions have weakened Russia only partially, and the action continues on the Ukrainian border shows it clearly. For the moment, in fact, are not yet adequately strong voices raised by civil society for a peaceful resolution of the issue with Kiev, indeed, probably for the effects of the government's propaganda, the majority of Russians support the president's action in respect of 'Ukraine. For Putin, this consensus is a double edged sword, crushed by the expectations created by himself, the Russian president, can not make concessions and prepare to share a more effective American pressure, despite Europe for now it is not fully lined. Among other initiatives designed to break the encirclement, to create an alternative fund, along with Brazil, China, India and South Africa, is among the most interesting to crack the American hegemony, but the effects will not be that long term. In the immediate Putin is forced to pursue a tactic relatively moderate, which is not at all for a complete evaluation, but it is for an assessment on the real intentions of the head of the Kremlin, which takes in constant apprehension that both Ukraine 'West, do not overdo it too much in the initiative. Putin probably would have opted for a more decisive, the type of those committed in the Crimea, even for the eastern regions of Ukraine, but is forced to a tactic of attrition, which, in the absence of more decisive retaliation, allows him to gain time and growing domestic consensus. The intention, of course, is to annex the Ukrainian pro-Russian provinces, even with more time. Faced with this strategy the United States are immobilized because they have no other means than to raise the pressure of the sanctions, but in this encounter the resistance of Europe, which has major economic interests in relations with Moscow. With these premises Putin holds the greatest chance of victory, but this can cost insulation and protracted hostilities in the economic and trade that they will not influence on the opinion of Russian society. In addition, a possible action at the international level aiming to rectify the breach of international law can break the image of Putin even before his commercial allies, through which seeks to break the isolation. The contest is still going to last long, well beyond the Obama presidency and a president less tender comparison could become even more heated.