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mercoledì 15 ottobre 2014

All the difficulties of Obama against the Islamic state

The meeting of the military leaders of the countries involved in the fight against the caliphate, held near Washington, has revealed how the coalition is still weak in its structure. This is not an argument militarily, but politically. The respective countries, which have entered into the covenant, are influenced by special interests, too often in contrast with the allies, this leads to a substantial immobility in the decisions that are favorable to the action of the caliphate. The risk for the United States, is to be alone once again facing the danger of Islamic terrorism, for more against an opponent who is an enemy capable of operating on a large scale scenarios. The American strategy was based on the involvement of Sunni states, then the same religious origin, in opposition to the fundamentalist Islamic state, especially as the main protagonists for ground operations, without which, it is now established will not be able to defeat the forces of the caliphate. The political positive about the involvement of the Sunni states from a military point of view the most engaging, late, however, to arrive and this results in a debate, with tones ever increasing within American public opinion. It is clear that, once again the credibility on the international political scene of President Obama, spurred by Republican opponents, who demand a greater commitment from the United States Army. However, Obama has set as a benchmark the refusal to participate in ground operations by personnel USA; Needless to say, the vast majority of the American public agrees with this approach and refuse any involvement of American soldiers in wars, not understanding the threat of the Islamic state and considering the issue, at best, only for the humanitarian aspect, without understand the geopolitical implications of the phenomenon that has formed. For the average American war in the Middle East is regarded as a matter which stand out, a kind of settling of accounts between conflicting religious tendencies. The White House is in the middle between those who want to participate and those who refuse involvement, but it certainly can not stay out of the issue and the only air intake is now established as insufficient. Not even the threat on its border has led to the involvement of the Turks, engaged to take advantage of the situation; the behavior of Ankara is a source of deep inner conflict in the Atlantic Alliance, which seems to worsen with the persistence of behavior turkish. These difficulties did not allow Obama to be optimistic, against a short-term solution of the war, the president has proposed, in fact, a long-term solution, which is bound to have a negative impact, as well as for regional balances, even on those in the world; paradoxically, the main difficulty for the United States are those of the alliance organize and find within it a lowest common denominator that lifts the commitment of its members, rather than the difficulties of war themselves.
For now, the strategy focuses on diverting resources to the caliphate; so far allowed the sale of crude oil a considerable influx of money into the coffers of the Islamic state, an aspect that does not seem fairly investigated consists precisely in the identification and prosecution of buyers and perhaps because it would reserve disappointment to the American administration, but the actions of the military aircraft have dramatically reduced the production of crude oil, thereby reducing the inflow to finance the Islamic state. But this represents only a marginal operation, the aspect that may decide the conflict is only the presence of ground troops and, for now, no member of the coalition wanted to engage its auditors, so Obama can count only on Kurdish fighters, the weak Iraqi army and the forces related to the democratic opposition in Syria. Of these three contingents, only Kurdish can ensure a certain reliability, especially if backed by the sky, as demonstrated by the fighting in Iraq. But the actual Kurds are too few and without support of a regular army on the ground can not achieve victory: this will be the central theme of which Obama will have to pry to get more concrete aid, taking care not to upset the precarious balance too diplomats .

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