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mercoledì 22 ottobre 2014

Brazil to vote in the deepest uncertainty

On the eve of the elections for the presidency of Brazil, the situation is deeply uncertain, the country seems to get an appointment electoral without any prediction on the final outcome and, above all, deeply divided. These divisions that cover both basic geographical and social, of the country, deeply affected by the proposed programs. According to analysts, the undecided are still many and every detail may be crucial for the election of the President of Brazil. Neves points to a strategy that aims to demonstrate the deterioration of conditions in the country over the past four years, coinciding with the mandate of Rousseff, a rise in inflation, the very limited growth in gross domestic product and the many accusations of corruption among government officials . The outgoing president uses to compare his challenger to the results that the country attained with President Cardoso (1995-2002), of the same party Neves, when inflation was very high, the privatization of the country's resources was marred by widespread corruption and Brazil was too subordinate to the International Monetary Fund. As can be seen this is very similar arguments, which can not move voting intentions much. Perhaps it may be more decisive argument of the application of the measures in the field of social status, that Rousseff has practiced in its mandate, against millions of families by raising the social status and bringing them out of poverty and allowing the passage of other groups social class from the poor to the media, through cash transfer programs and public housing. The outgoing President Neves says that, if elected, will not continue these programs, despite the fact that the challenger says otherwise. Neves is difficult to gain momentum in these social groups, even for its elitist character of the candidate; However, it is also true that there is a deep discontent in a part of the electorate that has the perception of how the action of the government of Rousseff has not been effective enough and the image of change that the programs of the challenger wants to pursue, especially in politics foreign and economy, could move a lot of success in his favor. In fact, right in international politics, the role of Brazil appeared to the second floor despite its economic potential; the country has not managed to carve out a leading role while remaining subordinate to the initiatives of the fact that Russia and China have undertaken in the framework of the organization that brings together the three countries together with India and South Africa, to counter American power and even in sub continent of Latin America has managed to emerge to achieve the role of leading country in the region. If Neves were able to convince the voters to be able to fill these gaps, to then be able to attract more investment, which impose a substantial role in Brazil in the international field, able to further improve the general condition of the country, could rip votes the outgoing president and tap into the tank containing the preferences of the candidate came third in the first round. These themes, which allow you to get a grip on the classes more educated and socially elevated, that are already being considered by voters natural Neves, have very much less effect on low and lower middle classes, the reservoir of votes Rousseff, who, in these last days election campaign, he must know how to keep the consensus in these social groups, the most numerous in Brazil, where they will play the decisive game. Although it is necessary to consider another element, the age of the voters, where Neves is a favorite among those who have less than 34 years, while Rousseff enjoys more support over 55 years of age. This seems to make the prediction even more uncertain because many of the poorer classes are formed by the younger. It seems to be so decisive that the outgoing president should not lose its social base, which is the largest in the country, where Neves effort to gather support able to bring him to victory. The situation is still very fluid and the end result remains in the deepest uncertainty.

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