Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 20 ottobre 2014
Yemen: the conflict between Al Qaeda and Shia, further problem for the USA
With the international focus on the events of the Islamic state, the situation in Yemen is going through, unjustly, in the second floor. The battle that takes place in an abandoned town in itself because it lacks authority since last September, is likely to have consequences far heavier than the attention that was dedicated to him. The comparison is carried out between the Shiite militias, which represent the minority of the population of the country, about one-third of the total, against jihadi formations of Al Qaeda. The comparison is a local replica of the conflict between Shiites and Sunnis, with the first backed by Iran. In this delicate situation is also repeated the informal alliance between Tehran and Washington, which is using its drones to fight the Sunni militias. The United States, in fact, at this stage, characterized by the progressive advance of the caliphate, has as its primary requirement to limit the expansion at all costs. The unofficial collaboration with Iran is necessary in order to combat the spread of fundamentalism Sunni Islam, however the degree of influence that is able to exert on Tehran Shiite fighters, there are some concerns: Iran, in fact, would not have total control of these fighters, but more than that would be a point of reference. Despite the indirect aid provided by the Americans, who have turned their weapons only against fighters of Al Qaeda, the moods of the Shiites against the United States would be strongly against; in each case the evaluation of the White House is less dangerous to believe Shias respect to members of Al Qaeda, which could turn into an Islamic state. The geographical position of Yemen has serious contraindications and strategic policies for regional balance and relations of alliance of the United States. If a fall in the country in the hands of Al Qaeda would be dangerous for access to the Red Sea, a seizure of power of the Shiites, could trigger dangerous reactions to Washington by Saudi Arabia, which would be an ally on its borders Tehran; this fact favored by the American military interventions, could exacerbate the crisis between the two countries, which has already experienced moments of profound tension at previous meetings on the Iranian nuclear issue between Tehran and the White House. Obama continues to practice his tactics without programming, addressing emerging problems from time to time, apparently without an overall framework that is able to take into account all the variables. If the emergency the greater the caliphate, the United States can not be separated from the support of the Saudis, though, practically, for now the input provided was only political. The objectives of the President of the USA against Saudi Arabia is the main Gulf monarchy remains immune to the contagion of the caliphate and secondly there is always the hope of a participation of Saudi soldiers in any operation of the earth; this from the practical point of view, but it is equally, if not more, necessary political backing from the country's Sunni majority against a Sunni religious fundamentalism force that makes her strong point. One solution, but it seems too bold for a president not some bold foreign policy as it is increasingly confirming Obama, would be to return to Yemen-based religious divide between Shia and Sunni Muslims, with the latter part maybe its subsidiary by the Saudis and purified by the presence of Al Qaeda. Meanwhile, the country of Yemen is in chaos and danger of turning into yet tinderbox capable of widening the contagion of instability also to the surroundings.
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