Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 5 gennaio 2015
For the European Commission belong to the euro is not revocable
The European Commission denies that there is the possibility of a Greek exit from the Euro, so the situation in the case of a victory of the left, does not provide for more than the way out thought from Berlin. However, the German thought, though not completely official, is shared by other European countries like the Czech Republic and Spain, who fear an onslaught of speculation in the single currency, at least until the final result of the Greek elections. The Greek left did not retreat from his intentions and, while willing to stay in the euro, puts at the center of its program restructuring the country's public debt, which rose from 240 billion to 280 billion because of the interest, although the percentage of these will be lowered from 5% to 2% of the starting current average. The intention of the Greek left is to repay the debt to the Troika when the growth of the country ascend to the percentages of 3 or 3.5%. This approach is due to the error allegedly committed the leaders of the Troika, in granting the loan, which asserted that the sum would have generated an increase of 4.5%, made impossible with such high interest to be returned, an error also recognized by the Fund International Monetary. The Greek left therefore criticizes the conditions of the loan by the Troika but protecting debts to private investors, who will have to be repaid in the time allowed. One objection to Brussels this setting is that the agreements previously entered into must be respected by the new government in Athens. And this is the fundamental point: what will happen if the left wins the election and then apply his program? It must be stressed that the Greek economy represents only 2% of the GDP of the entire EU, and therefore does not represent a risk to the overall system overall; then the situation could be resolved with greater flexibility on the part of Berlin, which should set aside the punitive own will, and, in fact, support a global investment plan which can stimulate the Greek economy to get back the loans. The suspect appears to be that such a plan could also be granted to Athens, but not extended to the main competitors in Germany, such as France and Italy, which are the ones that push more for a less rigid policy. Around the case greek is developing a network of conflicting interests, which may be claimed against the policy imposed by Germany. In this regard the statements of French President Hollande, while remaining very cautious, stressed that Greece and Spain have paid huge tribute to the stability of the single currency, matching the idea of Europe with the austerity, the opposite of what needs the EU, which should give a major boost to growth. The sense of this speech is so completely contrary to the intentions of Berlin. To make matters worse, there was also the accusation to Merkel, of interference in internal affairs Greeks, which Athens has never permitted, even when he was a creditor of Berlin in the period after the Second World War. Remember the dark periods and far in European history has often been a tool that Greece has used against Germany and that only serves to ward off the prospect of political union. The practical effects on the valuation of the euro have been a reduction in the value of the single currency. The declaration of the European Commission comes, therefore, to confuse even more the scenario, given that it seems impossible that Germany suffers the program that the Greek left will implement in the event of victory, while a distinct possibility may be that France and Italy, which so far acted under track for more investments, come out into the open and reclaim the loosening of budgetary constraints in a stronger, generating considerable tensions between the major countries in the single currency. This might be the most difficult test case for the euro, why not financial but political.
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