Politica Internazionale

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lunedì 5 gennaio 2015

If Greece leaves the euro, the problem will be political

If the intention of Germany will be to oust Greece from the single currency, in case of victory of the left, the consequences should be evaluated not only in purely economic but above all political. So the impression is that Berlin does not want to accept a re-discussion of the debt of a member of the euro, not so much as a financial consequence that seems bearable, as not to give rise to other nations to make similar requests. The explanation is again hidden behind the cold calculations, that even speak of favorable treatment already present towards the cost of debt for Athens, which would pay an interest of 2.4% compared with 2.7 paid by Germany itself. Merkel, in fact, think of Greece now such a useless ballast and does not fear any contagion in the economy of the euro, which has passed the worst phase of the crisis, that of 2012, with the stabilization of the economies in trouble and that is, in the meantime, with an instrument considered effective to prevent crises such as the European Stability Mechanism. This view appears however limited once again to only economic sector, revealing that the instrument of financial evaluation is still higher than that for political Berlin. More simply Germany intends to continue to exercise its leadership on the European Union building on its position as a major economic power, without conceding anything to assessments of political expediency, especially on longer periods. This is the confirmation of how Germany is using the EU as its backyard, where to sell their products and to better exploit the structural weaknesses of those who should be his allies to increase their gross domestic product. This behavior implies that other countries, especially France, Italy and Spain are in favor of a Greek exit, but this is not so obvious. The possible political consequences of a release of a member of the EU from the euro area could increase anti European trends of the various movements which recorded a growth of likings, because against Brussels. On the other hand accept requests Greek would certainly off a series of claims of the same content, that alter the stability of the single currency. This state of affairs, exasperated, is the result of short-sighted policy of Berlin that now are faced with a scenario where each selected solution will open the grounds of serious crisis; would not be so if the budget constraints were loose before, albeit with stricter rules, to mitigate the severe effects imposed on European populations. But this future, which is approaching with the arrival of the Greek elections, puts into serious doubt the German role, even with a possible defeat of the left Athens and requires a serious review at the political level of relations that govern the coexistence of states of 'European Union. Provided that they want to pursue the project of a political union also, aim to which European governments respond in the affirmative, but who do not follow measures to that effect. Especially Germany appears far from this, despite the proclamations, unless you intend a Union Berlin where most of the other capital accounts. Until now, the economic power of Germany was the deciding factor to take almost every decision, with the other EU members who have held the role of supporting actors; This situation has been going through governments that are bent to the dictates of Germany to defend, more than anything else, financial and banking systems and disaster victims without elaborating alternative solutions to the distribution of credit. These costs have been made to fall on households and businesses without a tangible return; the serious dissatisfaction has generated great favor to the anti-European movements, which are likely to win the first elections in many different countries, many of these parties have in their program exit from the euro or even the EU itself. Not so for the Greek left which remains a European movement and requires less financial constraints that make life difficult for the people of Greece. If this condition were to be repeated, even with other parties is not necessarily part of that policy, in other countries where the quality of life is significantly worsened by the rigidity of European budgets, the idea of a united Europe would have a better chance of surviving, is vice versa will go towards a dissolution in all times and ways to predict and Germany can no longer thrive thanks to the European market.

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