Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 5 febbraio 2015
Can a US commitment on the ground in Ukraine
The arrival in Kiev of the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, could herald a greater commitment of the United States in the conflict Ukrainian. The prospect would be materialized through the provision of arms to the army of Ukraine, to balance Russian aid received by the rebels. On the nature of aid Russians there are conflicting reports, but there is no doubt that the armed forces opposed to the troops of Kiev have received weapons and probably the military contest in Moscow, however, employees with no sign of recognition. On these bases have moved criticism to Putin, who has always denied involvement, if not moral, of the Russian state, conflicts with Kiev. The fundamental question behind the now likely supply of arms, to the quality of the type of weapons and provided the necessary support for use. According to some analysts, there is the real possibility that the US will provide Ukraine drones, missiles against armored vehicles and anti-tank missiles; it would be of material that needs to be used for appropriate knowledge, knowledge that the Ukrainian army troops have not, because that would be material not supplied to the forces of Kiev. This also involves sending US troops, in this regard, there are those who are pushing to speculate sending a contingent of 5,000 men able to use immediately armaments supplied against rebels pro-Russian. This possibility opens to a direct involvement of the United States, with its troops in the war Ukrainian; you would configure the worst case scenario, which would increase the conflict of war in local conflict virtually worldwide. It seems impossible that Moscow would not follow Washington on this road and so would deploy its troops on official military scenario. At that point the comparison by the dispute between Ukraine and the rebels would take the international dimension of a conflict where the US and Russia would be officially enemy on a military battlefield. It is a scenario potentially able to involve Europe and the Atlantic Alliance in the European theater of war against a major power with high military capabilities. Along with military implications are those policies a clash of this magnitude could cripple the international relations of the whole world, in a general context burdened by the Islamic fundamentalist threat, which affects in a rather narrow both sides, not to mention the very negative effects on a global economy that could give the first tentative signs of recovery. The determination of the United States is due to the fact that Russia continues to operate in a non-clear, providing aid to the rebels unofficially but still able to unbalance the tide of the war. Failed almost all attempts at mediation the consequence has been the intensification of military operations, the US fearing an escalation of the advance of the rebels and pressed by fears of the nations of the Atlantic Alliance, which belonged to the Soviet bloc, are expected to change their position of rejecting a direct involvement in the conflict, in part because of substantial parts of the members of the White House, who have identified from the outset as neo-imperialistic maneuvers in Moscow against the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The authorities of Kiev has long been calling for aid in various forms to the US, Europe and the Atlantic Alliance. However the attitude of Western Europe remains more cautious and more in favor of a diplomatic solution to the crisis, although this possibility seems to be less and less likely because of ongoing developments. It should, however, recognize that Ukraine and then the US, at least formally, the favor of international law and can appeal to the customary laws that provide for penalties for invasions like that of the Russian troops in the Crimea. The situation seems therefore likely to turn back the clock to the heavy atmosphere of the Cold War in a new edition of the confrontation between the US and Russia. The two international actors must, however, weigh well every decision, connecting it to a global scenario completely changed compared to the Cold War and that could lead to a defeat for both sides.
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