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mercoledì 4 febbraio 2015

The plight of Afghanistan without a fully legitimate government

Despite the end of the troubled election period, ended with the victory, quite uncertain at the political level, the President Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan is still virtually without a government with the full power of its powers to prosecute the executive. The question concerns the refusal of parliament to approve the ministers who were appointed by the head of state, for different reasons, including the possession of dual nationality, incompatible with the functions of minister and a corruption case. This situation, combined with the withdrawal of foreign troops, likely to plunge the country into a serious situation of weakness and instability. There is, therefore, the real risk of a potential repeat of the case of Iraq, where a hasty retreat, combined with mismanagement internal political balance, has brought the country close to the dissolution and competition conditions which have been essential to the creation of the State Islamic. After the elections, the basic idea was to create an executive of national unity, to overcome the difficulties of a tough election campaign and the need to create a stable government and strong, able to manage national emergencies. On the contrary, the current situation presents a scenario where the crucial ministries, such as defense, remain assigned to the interim ministers, but with reduced powers than those provided by current legislation. It is understandable that, with reduced powers, the executive struggling to cope with emergencies in the country, as the revolt of the Taliban, corruption and the serious state of the economy. What is looming is a state that makes for a situation of serious instability, which is a very fertile breeding ground for hostile forces to the state system grew thanks to the guarantee of the international contingent, but that without this safeguard, in 'current situation, is unlikely to survive the difficulties with which it is struggling. The state of the economy, one of the bulwarks against the affirmation of culture Taliban, in a fragile state, for the reduced growth of gross domestic product, due to lost revenue resulting from international aid; these sums had been distorted since the departure of foreign troops, which ensured also protection of foreign investment. This has gone from a record increase in gross domestic product in 2012 to the extent of more than 14.4%, the value of more than 4.9% in 2013, falling to 1.5% more than in 2014. It is a significant decrease on a poor economy, which has not yet found a size capable of ensuring the most advanced forms of self-sustenance for its population. This topic is closely connected with the problem of the Taliban, which are easier penetration in an impoverished society, which could be detached from tribal practices and fundamentalist thanks to significant economic improvements. The choice of the Taliban reject peace negotiations and keep the policy of fighting the Kabul government, it could be definitely benefited from a national army without a strong leadership and still not fully prepared to fight alone against the Taliban. Some analysts without a renewed and greater commitment of NATO, in the long run the regular armed forces will have to give up their strategic advantages to the Taliban forces, putting at risk the integrity of the state in its present form. For the United States and the Western powers, must not be repeated, then the lesson of Iraq, where it has not ruled the institutional transition, leaving a political class not ready unprepared and the complete management of national power thanks to an abrupt and not gradual transition deliveries. In the past, Afghanistan has become a terrorist state and to eradicate what you have lost human lives and spent considerable capital: these investments should not be wasted in the name of a short-sighted, that could bring everything back to the situation prior to the intervention in the country .

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