Syria's Assad favored by the fight against the Islamic State

Overshadowed by the war against the Islamic state, the situation in Syria, where the conflict has been going on for four years, has been overshadowed by events of which is fully part. The evolution of the situation has ended up encouraging people to stay in power by Assad, also because of its ability to manage and direct the internal conflicts to the various parties that made up the opposition to his dictatorship. Currently, according to some leading analysts, Assad from potential problem has become part of the possible solution of the conflict; In fact, international actors such as the US and the European Union, do not include in their scenarios, out of the land of the Syrian dictator of Damascus. This improvement of its position in the international arena is due to the increased urgency to eradicate the caliphate and the acknowledgment of the role of pacification that Assad can play in a peace process. The same secular opposition in exile, would take away the essential condition of his departure from Syria, for the start of peace talks. In this implicit admission of the inadequacy on the part of the majority of Syrian society, to know to manage a peaceful transition towards a peaceful evolution Western, it sums up all the failure of the expectations placed upon the Arab Spring, turns, then, just as authoritarian regimes in but religiously motivated. It is a profound teaching for the West, which, while motivated by good intentions, could not proceed in stages in the evaluation and facilitate the fall of dictatorships, that fostered huge power vacuum, filled by Islamic extremism. Despite opposition iron to a scenario with Assad, by France, Britain and Denmark, in the opinion of Western diplomacy you are configuring a new idea, which could favor, as an element of peace, a possible presidency by Assad , a coalition of national unity able to manage a peaceful transition to a democratic form of government. This assertion, which seems a contradiction in terms, has foundation in the fact that Damascus is placed firmly in the anti jihad and, precisely for this position, can be an ally, albeit uncomfortable, currently important in achieving the objective of determining the most urgent defeat of the Islamic State. Even the US, which continue to keep their distance from Assad, considering lacking any legitimacy to govern Syria, have relegated to secondary problem, compared to the fight to the caliphate. Assad holds, therefore, despite the opposition of the Gulf monarchies and Turkey, and albeit informally, an important role of interlocutor on the field in the fight against Islamic state, through its control of 40% of the Syrian territory and 60% of the population still present in the country. Beyond the favorable situation but cyclical, which is now enjoying Damascus, Assad continues to have as faithful allies Russia, Iran and the Hezbollah group in Lebanon. Especially the unconditional support of Tehran, which is advancing in a massive way in Iraq, Syria determines a situation that allows you to have a state not too isolated in international relations, especially if seen in the growing weight that Iran is playing on ground of the fight against the Sunni caliphate. But there is an important factor that Assad should not be underestimated: economic aid more consistent to his regime hails from Moscow and Tehran, capital of been struggling with great difficulty both financial and economic, that while maintaining all the support possible diplomatic could reduce subsidies in Damascus, causing serious problems to the regime. For this reason it is believed that Assad must decide quickly to not exercise more than the solitary role of dictator of the country and will have to carefully consider the possibility of opening a phase of negotiations with the opposition political matrix secular and democratic, because the stage of upcoming US presidential election, Washington may be no more than the current flexibility towards its position.