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venerdì 24 aprile 2015
Saudi resumes military activity in Yemen
Despite claims of Saudi air raids resumed in Yemen, with the goal of hitting a military camp in the south west of the country. The military base hit seems belonged to units close to the rebels Houti. This resumption of the bombing, which contradicted the announcement of the end of the air strikes, can mean two eventualities in Saudi strategy. On the one hand it could have been a rash statement, which did not take account of the strength he Houti may still have, on the other hand the capital Sanaa is still in the hands of the Shiite rebels. This could be a result of incorrect assessments, which have not taken into account the availability of military rebels and their ability to find allies even within the government forces. Conversely, the new coalition led by Saudi bombing could be a tactic to make loosen guarding enemies that have been fully understood the danger and the power available. Clashes have also occurred on the ground, in the city of Aden where Houti fought against the supporters of the president in exile in Saudi Arabia. The situation back then, to be serious, after that, with the announcement of the suspension of the bombing it was hoped to find a solution that would allow, at least, to open a phase of negotiations to stop a conflict that has already caused, according to the Data presented by the World Health Organization, more than 1,000 deaths in a month of fighting. Do not stop the conflict shows the Yemen at the center of the international scene and reopen the possibility of a confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional supremacy and within the Islamic religion, if Riyadh has continued with military action means that the prevailing feeling all 'interior of the Saudi kingdom is to feel threatened by the possible instability that even a shift of power in the state of Yemen could lead to a regional level. However, the risk is to make the political question coincide with the religious: the matrix Shiite rebels Houti could cause a reaction of Iran, triggering dangerous scenarios far beyond the scope of the region. Without neither the reactions of the United States, worried by the influence that the fighting may give the closing of the negotiations for the Iranian nuclear issue, expected by the end of June, after the preliminary treaty of Lausanne ended in a positive way. Interpretation, however, is not shared by the Saudis and other Sunni states, who have found an agreement quickly to fight the rebels Houti. In this scenario, Saudi Arabia has failed to engage in a complete Pakistan, which is the only state in the Sunni Muslim to be a nuclear power. The detail is not irrelevant: if Islamabad were to take sides openly against the Shiite rebels, would have a psychological impact on the conflict that could be huge, even for the reactions that could trigger. It is possible that there may be behind the caution Pakistani precisely the United States, in the event that the opposite could be put in very difficult to handle the situation. For now, Washington has maintained an ambiguous attitude towards the situation in Yemen, reiterating only with safety his support for the struggle against Al Qaeda. With regard to military action against Hout, after a moment of support took over a greater distance, which can not fail to report how the White House intends to maintain a certain distance between Riyadh and Tehran. The reasons for American concern also the fundamental contribution that the Iranians are providing to the fight against the Islamic state, conducted by the military on the ground in Tehran. One factor that the Saudis, despite the words of condemnation to the caliphate, have not yet provided. Although, in fact, the danger of the Islamic State for Saudi Arabia, which has deployed a large number of troops on the border of Iraq, there was no practical commitment against Sunni fundamentalists. The impression, which also applies to Turkey, is that the Sunni states, with some exceptions, do not want to commit themselves, against fighters of the Caliphate, not to lose an ally hidden in the conquest of Syria and not to trigger a war between members of the same religion, difficult to justify to the Sunni followers. On the other hand the only Sunni who until now have used weapons against the caliphate were the Egyptians, who the government a military junta. The situation in Yemen, then, could have very heavy repercussions throughout the Arab and Middle Eastern chessboard, with the US waiting for developments.
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