Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 7 maggio 2015

British elections: the majority system with the novelty of multiparty

The British electoral model was built to foster stable majorities, but is designed in a field of pure bipolarity. The elections today, on the contrary, they see in competitions partisan alliances; This factor, combined with the heavy uncertainty of the guidelines of the voters, foreshadows a future government structure, far more uncertain and conditioned by the need to get to form the government through alliances of parties, which will lead to a greater uncertainty of the government of the country . It seems obvious that no party can achieve alone an absolute majority and will therefore require the union of different formations. The latest polls speak of substantive equality between the two major parties, the percentages required, even if the Conservatives should eventually get in the lead with about 10-15 seats. This does not mean that Cameron, after receiving the task of forming the new government, in order succeed. To join the forces of the right, that seem to be necessary beyond the support of the Liberal Democrats, Cameron has promised a referendum to leave the European Union, a move that would be welcomed by the working classes, who will vote in general for the right, but that It is not seen just as favorably by the British finance and industry, which would see reduced their room for maneuver in case of victory of those who prefer the UK free from the constraints of Brussels. But even without going that far the only announcement of the referendum, it would expose the financial system of the United Kingdom in particular uncertainty, jeopardizing the gains for a period of speculators. If Cameron, in the case of Plato's victory, he could not form a government, the job would go to the Labour leader Miliband, whose ally is obliged the Scottish National Party, which is expected to steal, just to Labour, most of the seats, conquered that normally seats. The Scottish National Party, despite the negative outcome of the referendum to leave the United Kingdom, or, perhaps because of that, has increased the number of its members, and is given as a sure winner, almost absolute, in the Scottish territory. If this election result predicted by the polls, it will be confirmed, the Scottish party can become a subject crucial to ensure governability in London. But also on the alliance between Labour and Scottish Nationalists she is under threat of a referendum, rather the repetition of the referendum for the independence of Scotland. This condition is essential to participate in the majority, because the leaders of the Scottish nationalists believe the near future more favorable than the recent past, to be able to win the game of independence. As can be seen the two major parties, to be able to form a majority they are both subjected to a sort of blackmail similar, to which are respectively and both fundamentally opposed. Cameron, despite everything, will not come out by the European Union, which has got more advantages than claims to have suffered while Miliband does not want to break up the unity of the United Kingdom. These premises announce the end of the bipolar English permanently, not because of the presence of other parties, in addition to the two traditional, which were, however, already on the British political scene, as to their increased importance having become decisive for the governability of the country. The UK buys, thus, features continental policies, becoming its political system less manageable because the more fragmented and forced to compromise, which could potentially undermine the stability of traditional British policy.

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