Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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giovedì 7 maggio 2015
British elections: the majority system with the novelty of multiparty
The British electoral model was built to foster stable majorities, but is designed in a field of pure bipolarity. The elections today, on the contrary, they see in competitions partisan alliances; This
factor, combined with the heavy uncertainty of the guidelines of the
voters, foreshadows a future government structure, far more uncertain
and conditioned by the need to get to form the government through
alliances of parties, which will lead to a greater uncertainty of the
government of the country . It
seems obvious that no party can achieve alone an absolute majority and
will therefore require the union of different formations. The
latest polls speak of substantive equality between the two major
parties, the percentages required, even if the Conservatives should
eventually get in the lead with about 10-15 seats. This does not mean that Cameron, after receiving the task of forming the new government, in order succeed. To
join the forces of the right, that seem to be necessary beyond the
support of the Liberal Democrats, Cameron has promised a referendum to
leave the European Union, a move that would be welcomed by the working
classes, who will vote in general for the right, but that It
is not seen just as favorably by the British finance and industry,
which would see reduced their room for maneuver in case of victory of
those who prefer the UK free from the constraints of Brussels. But
even without going that far the only announcement of the referendum, it
would expose the financial system of the United Kingdom in particular
uncertainty, jeopardizing the gains for a period of speculators. If
Cameron, in the case of Plato's victory, he could not form a
government, the job would go to the Labour leader Miliband, whose ally
is obliged the Scottish National Party, which is expected to steal, just
to Labour, most of the seats, conquered that normally seats. The
Scottish National Party, despite the negative outcome of the referendum
to leave the United Kingdom, or, perhaps because of that, has increased
the number of its members, and is given as a sure winner, almost
absolute, in the Scottish territory. If
this election result predicted by the polls, it will be confirmed, the
Scottish party can become a subject crucial to ensure governability in
London. But
also on the alliance between Labour and Scottish Nationalists she is
under threat of a referendum, rather the repetition of the referendum
for the independence of Scotland. This
condition is essential to participate in the majority, because the
leaders of the Scottish nationalists believe the near future more
favorable than the recent past, to be able to win the game of
independence. As
can be seen the two major parties, to be able to form a majority they
are both subjected to a sort of blackmail similar, to which are
respectively and both fundamentally opposed. Cameron,
despite everything, will not come out by the European Union, which has
got more advantages than claims to have suffered while Miliband does not
want to break up the unity of the United Kingdom. These
premises announce the end of the bipolar English permanently, not
because of the presence of other parties, in addition to the two
traditional, which were, however, already on the British political
scene, as to their increased importance having become decisive for the
governability of the country. The
UK buys, thus, features continental policies, becoming its political
system less manageable because the more fragmented and forced to
compromise, which could potentially undermine the stability of
traditional British policy.
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