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giovedì 21 maggio 2015
For the US it is essential the role of Sunni tribes against the caliphate
The
loss of the city of Ramadi, conquered by the Islamic state, marked a
defeat for the regular Iraqi forces and the US strategy in the fight
against the forces of the caliphate. Washington
has not insisted enough in and involvement in the preparation of the
Sunni tribal forces, identified as a factor to be deployed alongside
Iraqi army, in order to keep the conflict in the area, within the matrix
Sunni. While
realizing that the combat capability of the Shiite militias is higher,
the White House prefers still try to maintain, in some areas of Iraq,
clashes between fighters, albeit conflicting, with the same religious
affiliation. One
of the main reasons is to not alienate the support of Sunni tribes
opposed to the Caliphate, considered essential for the reconquest of the
territories invaded by the Iraqi Islamic state, especially in the light
of a final defeat of the caliphate. In
fact, if the Shiite militias may be right more easily than
fundamentalist Sunnis, the victory is short-term, because it allows
Shiites to increase its influence and generate discontent of the Sunnis,
who becomes bound to result in the formation of new militias, which in the future they would be in opposition to the Shiites. The
new US strategy, however, points to win in a lasting way, through the
military defeat of the Islamic state, which must follow a stabilization
policy can maintain balance, allowing the majority of the Sunni
population to administer, without other interference. This
strategy also serves to demonstrate to the US allies of the Gulf
monarchies and generally moderate Sunni states, that Washington does not
intend to endorse the increasing territorial influence, that Iran is
trying to impose on several Iraqi areas, mostly Sunni through its military capacity. This
vision may involve a scenario of reorganization for Iraq, if not with
the division of the state, at least with the adoption of a federal form
of government, where the Sunnis are divided by Shiites. Since
the fall of Saddam Hussein's Iraq is ruled by a minority Shiite and
Sunnis are poorly involved in political decisions, this is something
that has greatly favored the initial adherence to the Islamic state and
its expansion. Only
after the 'exercise of power and too violent fundamentalist Islamic
state, different tribal groups rebelled against the Caliphate and have
become part of the coalition that has been joined to the regular Iraqi
forces. The
most urgent is, at present, to achieve military victories can make back
the troops of the Islamic state, but to get through the Sunni tribal
forces. To
this end the US has come up with more support on the ground, through a
special training by US personnel, the provision of improved weapons and
greater air cover. The
model designed by Washington expects, therefore, the strengthening of
Iraqi Sunni component contrary to the caliphate, so you can count on a
loyal ally; in
this regard, it was also thought to the establishment of a National
Guard made up of Sunnis, but the project was rejected by the Shiite
lawmakers, who feared that the creation of a paramilitary Sunni, could
be too powerful a tool in the hands of the secessionists. The
government in Baghdad, in the hands of the Shiites want to send Shiite
militias, probably mainly coming from Iran, in Sunni areas at risk of
falling into the hands of the caliphate, but the United States were
opposed, as they fear a drift sectarian the conflict, as well as losing the support of the Sunni tribes. Never
before has the case of conflict between Shiites and Sunnis become
central to the resolution of the struggle against the Caliphate and for
the balance of the region. The
most feasible solution, at least for the Iraqi territory, seems to be
to strictly divide the spheres of influence between Shiites and Sunnis,
allied to the US, to prevent internal conflicts in the coalition against
the caliphate, which would only encourage the expansion of Islamic state. The
official position of the White House is one of opposition to a division
of the state of Iraq, however, with ongoing international developments,
a change of address of the US administration could also encourage
greater international detente, about the discontent of the Gulf
monarchies, and
insert, in a possible process of revision of the Iraqi, even the
long-standing Kurdish problem, so as to encourage the emergence of an
independent state in all respects a sovereign entity of Kurdistan,
starting from that of Iraq.
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