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martedì 14 luglio 2015

Ends in a positive way the negotiations on Iran's nuclear

With two weeks late on the deadline, the talks on the Iranian nuclear issue ended in a positive way. We can not yet speak of agreement, because you have to wait for the ratification of the US and Iranian parliaments, but the closure of the negotiation still has a relief of historic significance, and opens new scenarios of international politics, until now almost unthinkable. Surely this is most important diplomatic event of the year, for what and invests for the possible developments connected. As stated by the High Representative of the European Union foreign policy, the result is that both sides have won and no one comes out a loser in the deal, while the Iranian foreign minister spoke of a compromise is not completely satisfactory, but which is the best possible. Behind this statement is all the effort that efforts resulted both in this final stage, which in the long preparatory meetings, where the failure has been repeatedly touched. The final terms of the agreement provide for the prohibition for Tehran to produce sufficient quantities to reach the construction of atomic weapons, over a period of at least ten years; for inspections are provided for new methods, while the Iranian military sites access can not be guaranteed. This last rule aims to not violate in too obvious sovereignty of Iran, especially in Tehran where the delegation held a lot. In return, the country of Iran since the beginning of 2016 will see the long-awaited end of the economic sanctions, which will allow access to foreign markets with exports than with imports. The measure has already led to an immediate drop in crude oil prices to which Iran holds a tenth of the world reserves. This point was strongly felt both by the government by the people because it will allow the country economic growth, expected general and raise the quality of life of the Iranian society. With regard to the embargo on imports of traditional weapons, the duration will still be five years, while restrictions on the technology's ballistic missile program will last for eight years. The research on the development of nuclear technology, will be the subject of an investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure that in the past there have been developments in the military sense of atomic technology, in any case, the plants in operation should staying active, whether used for civilian purposes. In the future Iran will continue enriching uranium in the quantities allowed, as well as research for the development of the main centrifuges will continue within the limits of civilian applications. In the event of failure to respect even the individual parties to the agreement, the sanctions would return to be in place by sixty-five days checks on the violation. For Obama, who in his mandates has always had as a weak foreign policy, it is the most successful in the international arena that has managed to achieve: the achievement of the agreement opens, in fact, new perspectives for a relaxing final between the two countries and collaboration scenarios closer on issues of common concern, such as terrorism. The counterpart to the diplomatic success is the reaction of Israel, who welcomed the news in the worst way, considering the signing of a gift to terrorism that Tehran will be financed by the end of sanctions. The strategy of the Israeli government now is to put pressure on the Republican party and on members of Congress opposed to the positive outcome of the negotiations to prevent its transformation into an official agreement. For the US President, then, now part of a new phase of negotiations, all aimed to convince the US Congress did not hinder the result of negotiations. This task should be easier for the Iranian officials, who had their main objective is to end the sanctions and that they expect the celebrations of the population. There remains the problem of the growing political weight that Iran will take on as part of the regional balance, with the ever-present threat of Saudi Arabia to buy a nuclear device from Pakistan. The new Saudi King has so far marked by a religious activism focused on the contrast between Sunnis and Shiites and the end of negotiations will only increase the hostility of the Riyadh to Tehran, including through indirect hostile acts. If, on the one hand, you got what looks like a great success for global peace, the sensitive Middle East region is likely to be a factor in more than destabilization.

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