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martedì 14 luglio 2015
Ends in a positive way the negotiations on Iran's nuclear
With two weeks late on the deadline, the talks on the Iranian nuclear issue ended in a positive way. We
can not yet speak of agreement, because you have to wait for the
ratification of the US and Iranian parliaments, but the closure of the
negotiation still has a relief of historic significance, and opens new
scenarios of international politics, until now almost unthinkable. Surely this is most important diplomatic event of the year, for what and invests for the possible developments connected. As
stated by the High Representative of the European Union foreign policy,
the result is that both sides have won and no one comes out a loser in
the deal, while the Iranian foreign minister spoke of a compromise is
not completely satisfactory, but which is the best possible. Behind
this statement is all the effort that efforts resulted both in this
final stage, which in the long preparatory meetings, where the failure
has been repeatedly touched. The
final terms of the agreement provide for the prohibition for Tehran to
produce sufficient quantities to reach the construction of atomic
weapons, over a period of at least ten years; for inspections are provided for new methods, while the Iranian military sites access can not be guaranteed. This last rule aims to not violate in too obvious sovereignty of Iran, especially in Tehran where the delegation held a lot. In
return, the country of Iran since the beginning of 2016 will see the
long-awaited end of the economic sanctions, which will allow access to
foreign markets with exports than with imports. The measure has already led to an immediate drop in crude oil prices to which Iran holds a tenth of the world reserves. This
point was strongly felt both by the government by the people because it
will allow the country economic growth, expected general and raise the
quality of life of the Iranian society. With
regard to the embargo on imports of traditional weapons, the duration
will still be five years, while restrictions on the technology's
ballistic missile program will last for eight years. The
research on the development of nuclear technology, will be the subject
of an investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure
that in the past there have been developments in the military sense of
atomic technology, in any case, the plants in operation should staying active, whether used for civilian purposes. In
the future Iran will continue enriching uranium in the quantities
allowed, as well as research for the development of the main centrifuges
will continue within the limits of civilian applications. In
the event of failure to respect even the individual parties to the
agreement, the sanctions would return to be in place by sixty-five days
checks on the violation. For
Obama, who in his mandates has always had as a weak foreign policy, it
is the most successful in the international arena that has managed to
achieve: the achievement of the agreement opens, in fact, new
perspectives for a relaxing final between the two countries and collaboration scenarios closer on issues of common concern, such as terrorism. The
counterpart to the diplomatic success is the reaction of Israel, who
welcomed the news in the worst way, considering the signing of a gift to
terrorism that Tehran will be financed by the end of sanctions. The
strategy of the Israeli government now is to put pressure on the
Republican party and on members of Congress opposed to the positive
outcome of the negotiations to prevent its transformation into an
official agreement. For
the US President, then, now part of a new phase of negotiations, all
aimed to convince the US Congress did not hinder the result of
negotiations. This
task should be easier for the Iranian officials, who had their main
objective is to end the sanctions and that they expect the celebrations
of the population. There
remains the problem of the growing political weight that Iran will take
on as part of the regional balance, with the ever-present threat of
Saudi Arabia to buy a nuclear device from Pakistan. The
new Saudi King has so far marked by a religious activism focused on the
contrast between Sunnis and Shiites and the end of negotiations will
only increase the hostility of the Riyadh to Tehran, including through
indirect hostile acts. If,
on the one hand, you got what looks like a great success for global
peace, the sensitive Middle East region is likely to be a factor in more
than destabilization.
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