Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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mercoledì 15 luglio 2015
Obama wants to repeat with Pyongyang scheme that led to the signing by the Iranian nuclear
After
the success of the signature on the negotiations for the nuclear, the
enthusiasm of Obama for their success has opened the possibility of
replicating the same pattern with North Korea. Despite
the objective has been achieved positive, must, however, consider the
enormous efforts made and the times when you are almost a fail, which
could complicate and escalate to a situation already perceived as very
delicate. This
set of negotiations has had a diplomatic cost very high and equally
will have in the future, in relations with US allies opposed to the end
result. Obama
has specified that the distances with Iran remain very high, despite
the signing surely open opportunities for collaboration, but that the
real target was not immediately allow that Tehran possessed an atomic
bomb. This has been achieved and now it is possible to establish new points of contact for a more balanced structure of the region. Apply the same pattern with Pyongyang appears legitimate ambition, however, the difficulties appear higher. There are substantial differences between Iran and North Korea, first of all the will of Tehran to treat. It
does not seem that Pyongyang has so far been willing to give up the
only instrument of pressure that can boast against the world, despite
the sanctions have hit an economy in conditions far worse than that of
Iran. The
fact of being a dictatorship almost single judge, allows Pyongyang to
stifle the protests and all that does not seem in the interests of the
country North Korea there is a real interest in improving the conditions
of his people, as, instead, happened in Iran, where the purpose of the sanctions was an important point of the last election campaign. Also
the reliability of the two countries there are large differences:
despite Iran is anything but a democracy, the commitment to respect the
agreements is estimated as reliably as a possible North Korean
availability looks very doubtful. The
President of the United States would like to address the negotiations
with North Korea only if there was a real will and credible Pyongyang to
make concrete steps towards denuclearization process irreversible. Certainly, this process should only cover the military and not civilian ones, as was the case with Iran. If,
on the one hand the motivation to eliminate or mitigate the sanctions,
may not be sufficient, close cooperation with China could lead to
greater results. Even
Beijing might be a diplomatic success to bring to bear on the
international scene, able to increase the importance of China in world
politics: a result that could enable Beijing to raise the rank of
superpower also political and not just economic. Analysts
say there is also a further obstacle to this desire of Obama, that
could be even greater than the will of North Korea: the negative
attitude of the US Congress on the results achieved on the Iranian
nuclear issue. It is no secret that the parliament the US, where the majority is Republican, is contrary to the agreement; Obama
has the constitutional instruments that should enable it to approve the
agreement, but the path will not be easy or smooth. Perhaps
Obama's successor, if he has the same his understanding, will benefit
from the experience gained by the American diplomatic machine to make
the same journey with Pyongyang.
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