Politica Internazionale

Politica Internazionale

Cerca nel blog

mercoledì 15 luglio 2015

Obama wants to repeat with Pyongyang scheme that led to the signing by the Iranian nuclear

After the success of the signature on the negotiations for the nuclear, the enthusiasm of Obama for their success has opened the possibility of replicating the same pattern with North Korea. Despite the objective has been achieved positive, must, however, consider the enormous efforts made and the times when you are almost a fail, which could complicate and escalate to a situation already perceived as very delicate. This set of negotiations has had a diplomatic cost very high and equally will have in the future, in relations with US allies opposed to the end result. Obama has specified that the distances with Iran remain very high, despite the signing surely open opportunities for collaboration, but that the real target was not immediately allow that Tehran possessed an atomic bomb. This has been achieved and now it is possible to establish new points of contact for a more balanced structure of the region. Apply the same pattern with Pyongyang appears legitimate ambition, however, the difficulties appear higher. There are substantial differences between Iran and North Korea, first of all the will of Tehran to treat. It does not seem that Pyongyang has so far been willing to give up the only instrument of pressure that can boast against the world, despite the sanctions have hit an economy in conditions far worse than that of Iran. The fact of being a dictatorship almost single judge, allows Pyongyang to stifle the protests and all that does not seem in the interests of the country North Korea there is a real interest in improving the conditions of his people, as, instead, happened in Iran, where the purpose of the sanctions was an important point of the last election campaign. Also the reliability of the two countries there are large differences: despite Iran is anything but a democracy, the commitment to respect the agreements is estimated as reliably as a possible North Korean availability looks very doubtful. The President of the United States would like to address the negotiations with North Korea only if there was a real will and credible Pyongyang to make concrete steps towards denuclearization process irreversible. Certainly, this process should only cover the military and not civilian ones, as was the case with Iran. If, on the one hand the motivation to eliminate or mitigate the sanctions, may not be sufficient, close cooperation with China could lead to greater results. Even Beijing might be a diplomatic success to bring to bear on the international scene, able to increase the importance of China in world politics: a result that could enable Beijing to raise the rank of superpower also political and not just economic. Analysts say there is also a further obstacle to this desire of Obama, that could be even greater than the will of North Korea: the negative attitude of the US Congress on the results achieved on the Iranian nuclear issue. It is no secret that the parliament the US, where the majority is Republican, is contrary to the agreement; Obama has the constitutional instruments that should enable it to approve the agreement, but the path will not be easy or smooth. Perhaps Obama's successor, if he has the same his understanding, will benefit from the experience gained by the American diplomatic machine to make the same journey with Pyongyang.

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento