Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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lunedì 17 agosto 2015
The devaluation Chinese symbol of the weakness of political power
Impairments Chinese are the care of a malaise that threatens to spread and break the fragile world economic. Beijing,
in the rush to keep up the rate of development has failed to implement
the reforms necessary to create domestic demand, which would have
enormous potential, but that, with the current conditions, is not in
degrees to balance the decrease in exports. From
the standpoint of economic growth for the current year, estimated at
7%, it was not already considered a result able to support the Chinese
economy, but the new data, which indicate the possible and significant
decreases, enable one scenery pejorative. The
depreciation of the Chinese currency is used to make cheaper goods
Beijing on foreign markets, which, however, suffer a reduction in
purchases generalized, which can not be overcome with a simple
devaluation. For
China it means jeopardizing the investments necessary to tackle major
projects and was in danger of the knot of local authority, on which
there are no official figures, but that is suspected, whether an entity
such as to danger in the Chinese financial system, despite the large cash available. The
perception is that China's rulers have realized late difficulties of
the country and have responded with an action imposed from above, that
has little to do with the exercise of market laws, as they wanted to
make believe until Now. Perhaps
the problem is that they have understood in a too liberal and
open-minded use of financial instruments, without creating the
appropriate conditions for the necessary and much-vaunted domestic
demand. Too
much economic inequality, widespread corruption and the power of
peripheral devices, often exercised in a despotic, are creating
increasingly broadly to a social distress, manifested by strikes and
unrest, going to endanger the balance of the country. If
the industrialization of China had promised the spread of wealth in
return for political continuity of the single party, which has never
been permitted deviations, the results, which have concentrated wealth
in the hands of a few, they have dismissed these hopes creating discontent and stimulating social demands to which the Communist Party fails to respond. The
creation of domestic demand should satisfy both the need for economic
and social ones enable the country to continue on the path of being a
truly great power. This
objective seems to recede with the devaluation, because technically
extends the gap between rich and poor classes, which are seen decreasing
purchasing power and therefore have even less ability to support
domestic demand. The
Chinese government is trying to rebalance its deficiencies by offering
its goods at lower prices in a world situation where the drop in
consumption appears a phenomenon, currently difficult to reverse, as
evidenced by the data on the slowdown in global trade. The
Chinese situation is not, however, a consolation for the competitors in
Beijing, in fact, both the US and the European Union fear that the
Chinese problems may arise contagion, capable of investing their
economies already in crisis. The
general problem, which has to be understood, is that this economic
crisis can not be solved only by means of finance, but needs social
welfare measures now essential and this is true for China, which for the
United States and for ' Europe. The
need for greater and more equitable income distribution appears the
best antidote to take the economic growth by promoting their internal
demands, which came to a considerable degree may be able to trigger
virtuous cycles on a wider scale. If
this is true of all the major economic players in the world it is even
more necessary for the country of China, which also has a need for
greater dissemination of political, civil and labor. Economic
success can not be chased from the approach which led the Chinese
Communist Party, just because the devaluation of these days shows that
it is a path that no longer guarantees success. If
these considerations are true, however, China seems stuck in a dead
end, because it seems that its leaders do not have the elasticity and
the ability to face a challenge far more large that the spread of the
market economy in an authoritarian because that's the crux of the matter. Without
solving the problem of the spread of the rights we will see temporary
solutions, which can not always ensure success, however temporary.
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