Politica Internazionale

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mercoledì 16 settembre 2015

Assad is blackmailing the European Union on Refugees

Despite the military setbacks, the tactic that Assad has pursued until now, made him achieve the goal through which power continue to have an important role in the Syrian affair. Damascus, in fact, has always been essential to try to buy time in a functional way to any change that could bring benefit to the regular forces. Despite a strategic leadership grossly inadequate, given that one of the best armies and armed with the availability of aviation has not been able to effectively fight opponents, initially very divided, Assad, which is also found with a significantly reduced space on which to exercise its sovereignty, it remained a staple in the general framework of the struggle in Syria, first identified by the US as a lesser evil compared to the Islamic state, and now enjoys the support of Russia, not only moral, but especially military and political. The words addressed to the European Union by the dictator of Damascus, completed the picture of revenge for Assad, who seems to have applied, flows of refugees, a scheme already tested by Gaddafi, who, through the regulation of migration flows departing from Libya, subjected to blackmail, most often of an economic, but also political, especially Italy and Europe through this. Assad has expressly recognized that power to slow down the flow of refugees, implying that it could also increase the scope, in exchange for help to fight terrorism, as a major cause of their migrations. It would be almost obvious argue that many of the fugitives have become such because of the brutality of the Syrian regime, came to use chemical weapons and explosive barrels filled with nails on their own civilians and only victims of the conflict and the parties involved; but this is still not enough to paint properly figure of Assad, as head of the civil conflict and therefore totally unreliable and inadequate to ensure a peaceful future for the country Syrian. This is because you can not conceive of a Syria still under the yoke of an illiberal and anti-democratic regime, which, with Assad still present, would return to the starting point. It must remember that the beginning of everything was due to the demand for greater democracy and not an intrusion of religion in political life of the country. Certainly the democratic forces that have launched demonstrations against Assad proved then minority, because they were not essential to the programs of the nations that have supported Sunni fundamentalists and have enjoyed American support, as Washington had covertly promised. The faults of the US are known, from the beginning of the conflict, worse is the attitude of persevering in the wrong, leaving, at the end, that the entrance Russian scenario came to disrupt completely the situation. Assad, however, can not count on a US aid, but is interested in the US do not change their position of immobility and continue to consider it an enemy functional to fight the Islamic state, which has now won every horizon of the White House, restricting the overall view in a substantial manner. Rather Assad is interested in European action, urging the military leadership of France and Britain, in return for providing relief in the pressure of migrants. This could allow London and Paris to become the stars of a solution or part of the solution of the biblical exodus in Europe. To give additional authenticity to his plan Assad, with the support of Putin, he said he was ready to enter into dialogue within Syria forces that are fighting against terrorism. This appears, however, a contradiction in terms, since the secular and democratic forces are also enemies of the Syrian regime and therefore there are no forces, except for the facade, can be inserted in any peace process. Eventually the problem Assad, who always manages to eradicate the Islamic state, which is less obvious, however, will return to the forefront and will be a source of deep international disputes, in proposing a key renewed confrontation between the West and Russia. Difficult to predict the final.

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