Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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venerdì 18 settembre 2015
The US forced to deal with Russia for Syria
The
American military and strategic failure in Syria and political
environment in Iraq, would have facilitated the rise of extremist
Islamic groups, who then went to establish the Islamic state. This
analysis, certainly an acceptable, comes from US experts, including
senior staff officers of Washington, who, by now, noted that military
actions conducted exclusively from the sky are not enough without the
land, made with troops of earth. The
White House, aware of this need has focused, for the country and the
training of training Syrian rebels moderates to create ground units can
provide the necessary support to the bombing run from the sky and also
from the sea, but there was by
strategists of the Pentagon a misjudgment to excess, thinking can turn
into soldiers efficient and capable members of the secular Syrian
formations. The
problem is that the human material to work proved to be too small in
number and low quality military, a basis on which even the American
training was insufficient for the goal. Currently
it is estimated that only a few hundred Syrians are subject to US
military training, while at the beginning of Obama's plan had to be more
than 5,400 auditors. On
the ground remain committed Kurds, who have some resentment towards the
US because of the bombing that Turkey carries on their workstations,
the soldiers of Assad, who are less and less, committed against the
caliphate, but having an attitude is not always uniform towards
the Kurds, Hezbollah, considered terrorists by the Americans and the
Iranian combatants, who assist the regular Syrian military and also have
an adversarial relationship, although less pronounced, with Kurdish
militias. In
this varied landscape fighters of democratic formations, which are
fighting against both Assad and against the Islamic state, they have a
very contained. For
the US the main objective remains the defeat of the caliphate, an
organization considered to be potentially capable of exponential growth
and, above all, capable of exporting terrorism, once that could be
consolidated in the territories it occupies and that is trying to
occupy. Obama
has always said that war in the Middle East there is no room for a new
direct intervention on the ground by US soldiers and this interpretation
seems shared by almost all of the American people, as well as from both
sides agriculture policies, which on the eve the
presidential election, are not intended to rule in favor of a new
commitment comparable to that undertaken in Afghanistan and Iraq. In
this scenario it has matured long ago the theory of the lesser evil,
identified Assad, also diplomatic rapprochement with Washington with its
major ally: Iran. Address
this issue is a delicate matter for the White House, it can not say too
much officially about a politician as controversial and bloody, but
that, although militarily greatly reduced, may be the only means
available to eradicate the forces of the Islamic State. In addition, in support of Assad, it came to the village even Russia, with significant military aid. At
the beginning of operations in Moscow, the West has compared the
intervention to the one conducted in Crimea in eastern Ukraine, but here
the conditions are very different. If
it is true that Russia has a major objective, preserving the only naval
base in the Mediterranean, it is also true that the political support
to Damascus has never ceased and the Russian interests there is a deep
connection with concerns Americans regarding terrorism. It
should be remembered many actual foreign Islamic state come from the
Russian regions of the Caucasus and stand out to be among the most
highly ideologized and politicized members, characterized by a vision
that aims to export Islamic extremism in their areas of origin. Seen
in this perspective, Russia would face far more immediate danger, the
phenomenon of domestic terrorism, which the United States itself. The
two super powers, currently divided again as in the Cold War years, may
develop feelings so far opposed such to favor a diplomatic approach can
defeat the caliphate. If
that were to occur in a state of Washington it would be weaker than in
Moscow, just because of the closeness between Assad's Syria and Russia. However, an alliance between the US, Russia and Iran could have reasons relatively reasonable militia of the caliphate. Washington
for the price to pay is two-fold: on the one hand to certify the
presence of Assad despite the brutality carried out on his own people,
the other side to manage a relationship that would become more and more
complicated, because of the reason above, with Sunni allies, especially
Saudi Arabia and Turkey, who thought to use the opportunity of the
Syrian civil war to remove Assad from the political scene. A
second difficulty the Americans will have to cope with in a diplomatic
way, reminding the allies that they were one of the causes of the
formation of the Islamic state issue, while, always diplomatically, must
be resolved the issue that may be presented with a stay in power Assad, trying to facilitate a transition of power, which preserves the guarantees for Tehran and Moscow.
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