Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 17 novembre 2015
The differences of the strategy of the Islamic state to Al Qaeda
The
recent attacks that the Islamic state has made outside its borders have
a definite military strategic significance, perhaps even more than
political. At
the beginning of the emergence of the Caliphate, this organization, has
differentiated it clearly from Al Qaeda, which had been the formation
of Islamic terrorism more important to the goal pursued, that is, the
creation of a territory under its sovereignty,
a genuine state governed by Islamic law interpreted in the most
radical, to be proposed as an example for all Muslims in the world. To
pursue this goal in a peaceful way was logically impossible, but the
use of arms must be within specified limits: those identified within the
Syrian and Iraqi borders, which gave birth to the initial Islamic state
of Iraq and the Levant, then he became just Islamic state or caliphate. In
contrast, Al Qaeda has never been shown to have the ambition to create
their own state, but to be a terrorist organization, which identified
the affirmation of radical Islam through terrorist acts directly within
the confines of his enemies, identified in ' West. If,
initially this mode of action had met with consensus among radical
Muslims, the general view has always been marred by a limitation of the
horizon of the objective, which always seemed too narrow. Al
Qaeda, in essence, it went well, as part of religious, until it
appeared another subject, which presented a more ambitious goal. This
dualism is not born by chance, but has matured over time, right inside
Al Qaeda, where people dissatisfied with this limitation, they operated a
detachment, identifying the possibility of exploiting large social
sectors, initially located primarily in Iraq, characterized the deep dissatisfaction of the management of the political process of passage that has characterized the post-Saddam Hussein. This
mismanagement, due largely to the Americans favored the Shiite on
Sunni, until then dominant, without an equitable redistribution of
power, which was handed over completely to the Iraqi Shiite country. The
deep aversion that has resulted in the Sunni tribal groups and the
remaining parts of the Bath party, the only political party allowed in
Saddam Hussein, has been the basis for the creation of an Islamic state.
A
similar path was taken in Syria, where the extremists divided into
various groups, have been fascinated by politics from Iraq, which
propagated the creation of a new matrix Sunni caliphate. With
this background it is understandable that military action should focus
in the territories, which had to be won over to the cause. The
Islamic State, while not hiding the deep aversion to the West and the
Muslims themselves whose attitude toward religion was considered cool,
do not show any interest to take military action outside the perimeter
that you were assigned. The
situation has changed profoundly with the interventions of foreign
powers against the militias who fought under the black flags of the
caliphate and were to be an obstacle to expansion and strengthening the
rule of Islam. This
scenario is the basis of change in military strategy of the Islamic
state, which hit Ankara, Beirut, Russia, through the attack on the
aircraft Russian and France. Other
attacks were repeated in Baghdad, but not to do fall within the change
in strategy, because the Iraqi capital is beginning in the expansionist
goals of the caliphate and is the first enemy to fight for the exercise
of sovereignty in the territory excluding any ' Iraq. The other affected countries are part of a logic of retaliation for the use of their fighters against armed Islamic state. Certainly
for the West has more prominent media, certainly not so right, a bomb
attack in Paris, or even against the Russian aircraft, compared to
Beirut or even to Ankara, but the indication that the Islamic state
wants giving it unique: the countries were affected to dissuade to continue fighting the caliphate. An
additional element in support of this thesis is the lack of rhetoric of
Al Qaeda, which presented their attacks as a result of a clash of
civilizations, often putting the reason for claim the elusive goal of
annihilation of the West. For
now, the Islamic state is far from this table, in the future if,
unfortunately, were unable to reach its goal of stability of the country
with sharia, could groped to give themselves a more ambitious, but for
the moment his horizon It is enclosed within the boundaries that you are given. This
consideration is however not at all reassuring: the Islamic state is
the only terrorist group in the world to be able to impose a sovereignty
comparable to that of a state entity in the world. The
military force that has the ability to mobilize and outside its borders
has demonstrated absolute efficiency and ultimately be a more
formidable enemy of Al Qaeda, because more structured and with more
ambitious targets, but these considerations are also made by members
of the same Al Qaeda, which have not yet been able to develop an
alternative strategy for supremacy in the Islamic fundamentalist galaxy.
The
real risk is that, to give it a try and even existence, Al-Qaeda
carries out an action that is part of its tradition, namely, to make
similar attacks against the West, to meet that part of the extremism
that like to see hit the West. This
risk should not be underestimated because the competition between the
two souls of fundamentalism is still strong, although some analysts have
pointed out that the debate is underway for a possible merger, as a
result of assessments of military opportunities, between groups.
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