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mercoledì 16 dicembre 2015

A new military coalition Sunni

Saudi Arabia has created a military coalition of countries to fight Sunni Islamic state and other terrorist groups. If the first impression may be that of an alliance formed to remove doubts about the real cooperation with the US and the Western powers against the caliphate, a more careful analysis, this new person who enters the scene of increasingly confused the Middle East conflict, is likely further damage the fragile present. Meanwhile, the aims of the founding member of the coalition, Saudi Arabia, do not seem to be essentially the defeat of the Islamic state, but, above all, to balance the action of Iran and Russia, both in the Syrian issue, where the goal is always to eliminate Assad from the scene, to take the influence of Damascus, Iraqi both in the scenario, where the presence of Tehran is always greater. Just about the country of Iraq, the Saudi concern is to counteract the increased power of Shiites against Sunnis, a consequence of the mismanagement of the American post-Saddam Iraq. The objectives of the coalition are to counteract the action of any terrorist group, then not only the Islamic State, without, however, define who falls into this category. The issue is not secondary, if you think doggedness with which the Saudi armed forces are fighting in Yemen, against Shiite rebels not directly connected with Iran. It seems clear that a broad interpretation as possible enemies, identified as terrorists, is likely to bring into this category formations or movements, that in the scenario in question, does not fall within the concept of Riyadh. In this perspective, even the secular formations, fighting against Assad borne by Member States, could become the objective of the new coalition led by Saudi Arabia. The countries that have confirmed their participation in the coalition are Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Turkey, Chad, Togo, Tunisia, Djibouti, Senegal, Sudan, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Gabon, Guinea , Palestine, Republic of Comoros, Qatar, Ivory Coast, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Maldives, Mali, Malaysia, Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Yemen. The operation by the alliance should take place in a coordinated manner with the western powers ie international organizations, but the framework of political parties in the field is confused and compromised by conflicting interests too. It seems all too clear that the objective of defeating the Islamic state, by all parties is only a part of their real intentions and acts more and more an excuse by which to create a new balance in the region. Which it will be necessary to interpret the feelings of the United States against this alliance. On the one hand an array of Muslim forces on the ground has always been a goal of the White House, to avoid doubts of a conflict that could be interpreted as neo-colonialist and the capacity to raise an internal solution to the crisis in the Middle East. However the views are too distant and often equivocal attitudes of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, against the caliphate, does not clarify the doubts about the true intentions of the coalition. The difficulties in relations with Russia, now seen as essential for the solution of the problem could worsen between the Atlantic Alliance and Moscow, if Turkey, from the inside of the new coalition, were to be continued pursuing their own interests, which are to eliminate Assad and make life difficult for the Kurds. But also the ambitions Saudi, who are not only political, but also religious, could disrupt the renewed relations between Iran and the US, and indeed, this might just be a target of Riyadh. A further question is just how will be the relationship with Tehran, given that the creation of an alliance of Sunni states alone, can not risk a worsening between the two major branches of Islam, an extreme so an already serious situation. The judgment of this alliance can not be positive, because it was born out of a particular union, the matrix Sunni, rather than being extended to an audience cross, but this is due to significant differences that are far from outdated and should be resolved through diplomatic channels preventively, not add new elements of discord are able to promote the entity that says he wants to fight: the Islamic state.

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