Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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mercoledì 16 dicembre 2015
A new military coalition Sunni
Saudi Arabia has created a military coalition of countries to fight Sunni Islamic state and other terrorist groups. If
the first impression may be that of an alliance formed to remove doubts
about the real cooperation with the US and the Western powers against
the caliphate, a more careful analysis, this new person who enters the
scene of increasingly confused the Middle East conflict, is likely further damage the fragile present. Meanwhile,
the aims of the founding member of the coalition, Saudi Arabia, do not
seem to be essentially the defeat of the Islamic state, but, above all,
to balance the action of Iran and Russia, both in the Syrian issue,
where the goal is always to
eliminate Assad from the scene, to take the influence of Damascus,
Iraqi both in the scenario, where the presence of Tehran is always
greater. Just
about the country of Iraq, the Saudi concern is to counteract the
increased power of Shiites against Sunnis, a consequence of the
mismanagement of the American post-Saddam Iraq. The
objectives of the coalition are to counteract the action of any
terrorist group, then not only the Islamic State, without, however,
define who falls into this category. The
issue is not secondary, if you think doggedness with which the Saudi
armed forces are fighting in Yemen, against Shiite rebels not directly
connected with Iran. It
seems clear that a broad interpretation as possible enemies, identified
as terrorists, is likely to bring into this category formations or
movements, that in the scenario in question, does not fall within the
concept of Riyadh. In
this perspective, even the secular formations, fighting against Assad
borne by Member States, could become the objective of the new coalition
led by Saudi Arabia. The
countries that have confirmed their participation in the coalition are
Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin,
Turkey, Chad, Togo, Tunisia, Djibouti, Senegal, Sudan, Sierra Leone,
Somalia, Gabon, Guinea ,
Palestine, Republic of Comoros, Qatar, Ivory Coast, Kuwait, Lebanon,
Libya, Maldives, Mali, Malaysia, Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Niger,
Nigeria and Yemen. The
operation by the alliance should take place in a coordinated manner
with the western powers ie international organizations, but the
framework of political parties in the field is confused and compromised
by conflicting interests too. It
seems all too clear that the objective of defeating the Islamic state,
by all parties is only a part of their real intentions and acts more and
more an excuse by which to create a new balance in the region. Which it will be necessary to interpret the feelings of the United States against this alliance. On
the one hand an array of Muslim forces on the ground has always been a
goal of the White House, to avoid doubts of a conflict that could be
interpreted as neo-colonialist and the capacity to raise an internal
solution to the crisis in the Middle East. However
the views are too distant and often equivocal attitudes of Saudi Arabia
and Turkey, against the caliphate, does not clarify the doubts about
the true intentions of the coalition. The
difficulties in relations with Russia, now seen as essential for the
solution of the problem could worsen between the Atlantic Alliance and
Moscow, if Turkey, from the inside of the new coalition, were to be
continued pursuing their own interests, which are to eliminate Assad and make life difficult for the Kurds. But
also the ambitions Saudi, who are not only political, but also
religious, could disrupt the renewed relations between Iran and the US,
and indeed, this might just be a target of Riyadh. A
further question is just how will be the relationship with Tehran,
given that the creation of an alliance of Sunni states alone, can not
risk a worsening between the two major branches of Islam, an extreme so
an already serious situation. The
judgment of this alliance can not be positive, because it was born out
of a particular union, the matrix Sunni, rather than being extended to
an audience cross, but this is due to significant differences that are
far from outdated and should be resolved through diplomatic channels preventively, not add new elements of discord are able to promote the entity that says he wants to fight: the Islamic state.
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