Politica Internazionale

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lunedì 21 marzo 2016

In the increasingly difficult situation in Yemen

After a year of war, the situation in Yemen, the poorest nation in the Arab world, is still far from being resolved. The intention of Saudi Arabia, who opened the conflict, were to arrive at a quick solution to avoid a contagion of rebellion within its borders and prevent the Yemeni nation fall under Iranian influence because of Shiite religion of rebels. Riyadh has also formed an alliance of Sunni countries to show that he is the only one to want to maintain the balance in the region, but the efforts have not produced the pacification of the country. There are deep similarities with the Syrian affair, including the military stagnation and uncertainty about the future, but the most serious aspect is the condition of civilians, which are found to suffer from the condition imposed by the war, but from the economic conditions and much worse than starting health than those of the Syrians. Meanwhile, the country's infrastructure, already poor, have been damaged, which, in many cases, made them irreparable: power plants, hospitals, schools and the few production centers have been affected by the Saudis bombing and this has resulted in the contraction of a percentage of gross domestic product by 35%, leading to about $ 320 to per capita. Yemen has a population of 26.5 million inhabitants and it is estimated that eighty percent who needs to receive humanitarian aid, while 14.4 million people fail to make up for the primary food needs, 19.4 million do not have access to drinking water, and 14, 1 million may not have access to health care. These data are official figures provided by the United Nations and announce an even worse future, because of the effects of these deficiencies, which can not but influence on increasing the severity of sanitary conditions, in a context aggravated by the destruction of physicians and centers hospitals. This situation is aggravated by the fact that persons fleeing their country that there are hardly any Yemeni refugees to aspire to better living conditions, despite the high number of displaced persons from the areas of fighting. The geographical position of the Yemeni state prevents the flow of refugees, because on one hand the Saudi border is manned, while the other side can only groped to cross the sea to get on the African coast. This situation contributes substantially to making this conflict increasingly less visible: If this factor helps the Saudis not to be the focus of public opinion, the other is likely to lead to an understatement of the conflict within the most global scenarios. In the present situation the biggest political risk is that materialize in the country of Yemen a power vacuum, which can not be exercised by the Saudis, for obvious inability, but even by the many clans present, in which the territory, which is divided in some so, they are the only this form of self-government in a country where the central government is absent. This has encouraged the growth of the presence of Al-Qaeda, which has never concealed the ambition to have some sort of territorial sovereignty to implant their own base. It is an obvious tactical error of the Saudis, who favored this situation, too busy fighting the improbable Iranian influence over a population that Ake Shiite, he never showed to like the Tehran aid. Moreover, this concentration on rebels in Yemen has also distracted, perhaps unwittingly, forces from the fight against the Islamic State, contributing ambiguous attitude of Saudi Arabia against the caliphate. These two errors added together might put Saudi Arabia in a difficult position and too much exposed to Middle Eastern terrorism, as well as to have on its border a state characterized by profound aversion to Riyadh; it will be necessary to put a remedy to this situation with greater use of diplomacy and concessions to Yemen and a determined commitment against the Islamic State, also to recover relations with the United States deteriorated precisely the attitude suspicion held by the Saudis with the caliphate , to support the Sunni advanced and ambitions to gain influence in Syria.

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