Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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lunedì 21 marzo 2016
In the increasingly difficult situation in Yemen
After a year of war, the situation in Yemen, the poorest nation in the Arab world, is still far from being resolved. The
intention of Saudi Arabia, who opened the conflict, were to arrive at a
quick solution to avoid a contagion of rebellion within its borders and
prevent the Yemeni nation fall under Iranian influence because of
Shiite religion of rebels. Riyadh
has also formed an alliance of Sunni countries to show that he is the
only one to want to maintain the balance in the region, but the efforts
have not produced the pacification of the country. There
are deep similarities with the Syrian affair, including the military
stagnation and uncertainty about the future, but the most serious aspect
is the condition of civilians, which are found to suffer from the
condition imposed by the war, but from the economic conditions and much worse than starting health than those of the Syrians. Meanwhile,
the country's infrastructure, already poor, have been damaged, which,
in many cases, made them irreparable: power plants, hospitals, schools
and the few production centers have been affected by the Saudis bombing
and this has resulted in the contraction of a percentage of gross domestic product by 35%, leading to about $ 320 to per capita. Yemen
has a population of 26.5 million inhabitants and it is estimated that
eighty percent who needs to receive humanitarian aid, while 14.4 million
people fail to make up for the primary food needs, 19.4 million do not
have access to drinking water, and 14, 1 million may not have access to health care. These
data are official figures provided by the United Nations and announce
an even worse future, because of the effects of these deficiencies,
which can not but influence on increasing the severity of sanitary
conditions, in a context aggravated by the destruction of physicians and
centers hospitals. This
situation is aggravated by the fact that persons fleeing their country
that there are hardly any Yemeni refugees to aspire to better living
conditions, despite the high number of displaced persons from the areas
of fighting. The
geographical position of the Yemeni state prevents the flow of
refugees, because on one hand the Saudi border is manned, while the
other side can only groped to cross the sea to get on the African coast.
This
situation contributes substantially to making this conflict
increasingly less visible: If this factor helps the Saudis not to be the
focus of public opinion, the other is likely to lead to an
understatement of the conflict within the most global scenarios. In
the present situation the biggest political risk is that materialize in
the country of Yemen a power vacuum, which can not be exercised by the
Saudis, for obvious inability, but even by the many clans present, in
which the territory, which is divided in some so, they are the only this form of self-government in a country where the central government is absent. This
has encouraged the growth of the presence of Al-Qaeda, which has never
concealed the ambition to have some sort of territorial sovereignty to
implant their own base. It
is an obvious tactical error of the Saudis, who favored this situation,
too busy fighting the improbable Iranian influence over a population
that Ake Shiite, he never showed to like the Tehran aid. Moreover,
this concentration on rebels in Yemen has also distracted, perhaps
unwittingly, forces from the fight against the Islamic State,
contributing ambiguous attitude of Saudi Arabia against the caliphate. These
two errors added together might put Saudi Arabia in a difficult
position and too much exposed to Middle Eastern terrorism, as well as to
have on its border a state characterized by profound aversion to
Riyadh; it
will be necessary to put a remedy to this situation with greater use of
diplomacy and concessions to Yemen and a determined commitment against
the Islamic State, also to recover relations with the United States
deteriorated precisely the attitude suspicion held by the Saudis with
the caliphate , to support the Sunni advanced and ambitions to gain influence in Syria.
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