Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
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lunedì 7 marzo 2016
The military maneuvers of Washington and Seoul irritate North Korea
Joint
military exercises between the US and South Korea have caused violent
verbal reactions from Pyongyang, which culminated with the explicit
threat to strike with nuclear weapons the territories of the two
countries. On
every occasion that occur military maneuvers North Korea reacts so
blatant feeling the aim of the two allied countries, but this year,
after the nuclear tests conducted by North Koreans, who have provoked
the tightening of sanctions, the level threat has risen. The size of the military exercises will be huge, so to be the largest ever implemented. The soldiers involved are more than 315,000 and is expected to last until the end of the month of April; the
most important fact is that the maneuvers are planned in order, even to
simulate an attack on North Korea to take control of its nuclear
weapons. It
is understandable that these intentions are the answer to the
experiments conducted by Pyongyang in January and condemned by the whole
world public opinion. If
from a military point of view one can understand such a show of force,
from the political and diplomatic efforts of the joint maneuvers could
also cause a reaction, even reckless, by a regime that seems on the
verge of disintegration. Economic
sanctions have become more stringent, the North Korean ships or related
to the country, can be blocked in ports, as they have chosen to make
the Philippines or it can be considerably limited the ability to
maneuver, as China is doing; the
very fact that Beijing, although without fanfare, it is aligned to the
positions of the United Nations, as evidenced also by the Chinese
government to North Korea, in this historic phase, representing a
present danger to the stability of the region and therefore its economy. It is a topic to which China is very sensitive and about which there seems to settle over. However,
the dominant feeling in Pyongyang is to be surrounded and this resulted
in threats of a range of responses, including the pre-emptive strike. If
the outcome of a possible conflict appears obvious, the damage that
could result in a North Korean military action, appear potentially
devastating. Even
without using the nuclear option, that probably could not travel to the
US, but certainly South Korea, Pyongyang has the necessary capacity,
even in conventional arms, to create a military incident, which could
force China to take sides in his side, even if reluctantly. This
option is not to be underestimated: Beijing is proving to no longer
bear the North Korean regime, but it is strongly opposed to a
reunification that would be born an ally of the United States and would
eliminate a sort of buffer zone between its borders. In
other words, China could be seen the US military directly on their
border, a scenario that Beijing does not want above all to avoid
unpleasant surprises and to not undermine its regional influence
projects. The
real danger is therefore a diplomatic incident that could lead to a
direct confrontation between Washington and Beijing, this solution is
the real dangerous weapon in the hands of Pyongyang and must be avoided
by all peaceful means. In
this sense it would be desirable to have a more intense diplomatic
action, especially to China to overthrow the regime and replace it with a
government loyal to Beijing but no more unmanageable as the current
one. But
probably the situation got out of hand even the Chinese, who are likely
to become hostages of an unpredictable and fast-crisis regime and,
therefore, willing to do anything.
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