Politica Internazionale

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lunedì 7 marzo 2016

The military maneuvers of Washington and Seoul irritate North Korea

Joint military exercises between the US and South Korea have caused violent verbal reactions from Pyongyang, which culminated with the explicit threat to strike with nuclear weapons the territories of the two countries. On every occasion that occur military maneuvers North Korea reacts so blatant feeling the aim of the two allied countries, but this year, after the nuclear tests conducted by North Koreans, who have provoked the tightening of sanctions, the level threat has risen. The size of the military exercises will be huge, so to be the largest ever implemented. The soldiers involved are more than 315,000 and is expected to last until the end of the month of April; the most important fact is that the maneuvers are planned in order, even to simulate an attack on North Korea to take control of its nuclear weapons. It is understandable that these intentions are the answer to the experiments conducted by Pyongyang in January and condemned by the whole world public opinion. If from a military point of view one can understand such a show of force, from the political and diplomatic efforts of the joint maneuvers could also cause a reaction, even reckless, by a regime that seems on the verge of disintegration. Economic sanctions have become more stringent, the North Korean ships or related to the country, can be blocked in ports, as they have chosen to make the Philippines or it can be considerably limited the ability to maneuver, as China is doing; the very fact that Beijing, although without fanfare, it is aligned to the positions of the United Nations, as evidenced also by the Chinese government to North Korea, in this historic phase, representing a present danger to the stability of the region and therefore its economy. It is a topic to which China is very sensitive and about which there seems to settle over. However, the dominant feeling in Pyongyang is to be surrounded and this resulted in threats of a range of responses, including the pre-emptive strike. If the outcome of a possible conflict appears obvious, the damage that could result in a North Korean military action, appear potentially devastating. Even without using the nuclear option, that probably could not travel to the US, but certainly South Korea, Pyongyang has the necessary capacity, even in conventional arms, to create a military incident, which could force China to take sides in his side, even if reluctantly. This option is not to be underestimated: Beijing is proving to no longer bear the North Korean regime, but it is strongly opposed to a reunification that would be born an ally of the United States and would eliminate a sort of buffer zone between its borders. In other words, China could be seen the US military directly on their border, a scenario that Beijing does not want above all to avoid unpleasant surprises and to not undermine its regional influence projects. The real danger is therefore a diplomatic incident that could lead to a direct confrontation between Washington and Beijing, this solution is the real dangerous weapon in the hands of Pyongyang and must be avoided by all peaceful means. In this sense it would be desirable to have a more intense diplomatic action, especially to China to overthrow the regime and replace it with a government loyal to Beijing but no more unmanageable as the current one. But probably the situation got out of hand even the Chinese, who are likely to become hostages of an unpredictable and fast-crisis regime and, therefore, willing to do anything.

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