A document calls for Assad Alawite a democratic transition: real demand or of Damascus strategy?

The document passed away in Damascus in recent days, in which the Alawites, the same religious sect from which Assad, require a gradual regime change for Syria, including the possibility of a government expressed by the Sunni majority, provided that he can maintain the secular nature the state and the freedom of all religious trends, has opened a debate, which we must make some considerations. Alawites are in fact the government, the country, even though she was a minority, until the coming to power of Assad's father and hold important political and military leadership positions; but it is also true that many of their members belong or belonged to the dissidence expressed in underground parties, which have always been opposed to Damascus, and for this reason they were persecuted they could get even physical elimination. In any case, whether they are integrated into the system, whether they are opponents, it is restricted parts of Syrian society, whose dissent is significant precisely because they belong, as a rule, to the same part of Assad. The proposal, by itself, is not unreasonable or without a certain logic and consistency and is based on the need for a transition of power in Syria, but it must be gradual, that is, with a passage that includes a phase in which Assad must put the role of guarantor. Motivation is basically correct because it wants to avoid a power vacuum, which would create a situation no government in the country, to allow a dangerous anarchy, capable of bringing Syria in the condition of the presence of the civil war. The document does not, however, allow a certain identification of its origin, is in fact signed the "new Alawites," a definition that does not provide a clear dimension of the area inside sharing of the Alawite community, of what is stated. The problem is that, while not declaring himself opposed to Assad, the proponents of the proposal explicitly state that the country's current gaming system of government does not allow the necessary reforms which can ensure the necessary change. This change must be gradual, to well-defined phases and the constant monitoring of the bodies of the international community. The end result should be a pluralistic political system, marked by a prominent secularism, which must understand and ensure democracy and independence through the absolute guarantee of civil rights, first of all freedom. The use of these terms can reveal the origin of restricted circles of the Alawites, as intellectuals or people with a higher education level, which are not identified, they identified themselves in advance with the circle that has guaranteed and supported Assad control of power. Seen in this light, the phenomenon seems to be the action of a group outside of the classes in power, it is rather of elements already in opposition and so it would not seem the expression of a desire for a reform that will start from ' inside of the regime. It could be, therefore, a mere hope of that part of the Alawites, who want to promote a dialogue with the Sunni population, in order to avoid a new discrimination and promote integration capable of overcoming the differences within the country. But, knowing the tactics of Assad, it could also be a new strategy of the dictator of Damascus, which has as its aims, firstly, to gain time against domestic opponents, ensuring power support them as collateral for a possible transition of power, prejudice, however, to control the country. Assad in that privileged position could directly influence any election; on the other hand the condition put on the negotiating table by the secular opposition groups, namely that of a future without Assad for Syria, it seems to have fallen, with the help of Russian military and the proof is that the Geneva conference was substantially snubbed by the Damascus government. The presence of an official put the request by an Alawite group not well identified, which could also be an expression of dissent, containing an express request of involvement in the participation in democratic transition, directed towards Assad, could constitute, in the perceptions of the international scenario, a sort of investiture for a role, which would otherwise constitute a usurpation. Doubt is all inherent in the origin of this request, which appears opaque and thus serves the purposes mentioned above. Without a clear and proven claim of the requests contained in the document the questions on its origin appear very legitimate.