Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 21 novembre 2017
Assad meets Putin for the future layout of Syria
Assad's visit to Russia seems to want to celebrate Moscow's intervention in the Syrian war. The
Syrian President personally brought his own thanks to Putin and all the
Russian military apparatus for the support that the Kremlin secured in
Damascus, allowing him to overthrow a situation that had emerged as
clearly unfavorable: without intervention Russian military, in fact, the fate of the regime and, probably, Assad himself appeared marked. The
new fact is that Putin seems to want to take on a political role after
the military: in fact, the Kremlin chief has explicitly spoken of
wanting to occupy the political process that will have to end at the end
of hostilities. Indeed,
with the awareness that military operations are going to end, Russia
intends to be the protagonist of the future developments of the Syrian
country. For
Syria, Putin represents a strategic ally, both for the Mediterranean,
the only Russian base in this sea is in Tartus, both as an outpost in
the Middle East and back in the world. Nor
is the importance of the image of Moscow to be underestimated, as
thanks to the intervention in Syria, Russia has returned to play the
role of great power, which, from the end of the Soviet Union, was no
longer exercising. The
two political leaders' speeches focused on the fight against terrorism,
both as a local struggle within the Syrian country and in a wider
vision at world level. This
operation to make terrorism equal to all those who have fought against
the regular Syrian army, an instrumental operation, serves Assad to
unite all its opponents in a generic terrorism without distinguishing,
for example, the Islamic state from the opposition to the dictatorship of Damascus or Kurdish groups. Moreover,
the tactics of the Syrian government have always been this, even in the
most bloody stages of the battle, also to highlight Assad's role as an
embankment and control of movements that could alter regional balances,
as recognized by other states like Israel. This
position implies the unwillingness of recognizing groups of democratic
opposition, opening up a scenario of further controversy within Syrian
society, which could be solved by the violent methods with which Assad,
and before his father, has always eliminated parties and movements demanding greater democracy in the country. In
support of this prediction, the dictator's thanks to Putin should also
be mentioned, to collaborate in order to preserve the integrity of the
country and the independence of the country from foreign subjects. As
for the Islamic State, foreign agents were the Gulf countries, while
the foreign agent in question was the United States for democratic
opponents. However,
an arrangement of the peaceful country can not fail even from
Washington and it will be interesting to see how the inner scenario of
Syria will develop. From
the US perspective, Assad's permanence, which was seen in a totally
negative way, has assumed a different value for the struggle against the
Caliphate, but an uncontrolled power of the Damascus government can not
be accepted, especially for the Iranian side of his side the dictator. Likewise, the Gulf monarchies and even Egypt, that is, the Sunni countries, will not hinder the Syrian government; different,
instead, the Turkish position, which positively assesses a united
Syria, above all as a burden to the Kurdish will to form a state entity
on the borders of Ankara. These
are essentially those aspects that will affect the future Syrian
political situation, although Assad's position, thanks to Russia,
appears to be greatly strengthened.
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