The international evolution of the Syrian conflict

The evolution of the Syrian war presents some dangerous motorcycles capable of developing military comparisons between different states, which are still trying to bring their interests beyond a pacification that does not come. With the defeat of the Islamic State the Syrian situation seemed to have a loosening of military operations, but the presence in the armies of different nations risks opening a new phase that goes beyond the internal confrontation of the factions of the country, to become a sort of comparison of opposite positions within the international scenario. On the one hand, the Russian presence serves to keep Assad in power: without the Moscow army, Damascus would probably have suffered a defeat. Russia, up until the beginning of the civil war, was interested in keeping Syria under its influence and this provoked its direct entry into the conflict, nominally justified by the desire to defeat the Sunni-dominated Islamic terrorism. For Tehran it was just as important to keep Assad in government, of which he has always been an ally, thanks to his religious closeness and as a bank against the Sunnis, partly because of the desire to limit Saudi expansionism. The United States has long tried to delegate to others the solution of the Syrian crisis, hoping for an English or European intervention that has never arrived. Obama has maintained a low profile, limiting himself to supporting the weaker part of the rebellion, the secular and democratic militias that have never reached a sufficient degree of autonomy. Trump's will, initially, would have been to delegate to Putin the solution of the matter, preferring to devote himself to the internal reality, however the Pentagon pressures forced the White House to engage the issue more directly, also to protect the traditional Kurdish allies . In addition to these three powers, Turkey's involvement is increasingly emerging. Ankara is adopting a wavering attitude: at the beginning of the conflict its greatest interest was to determine the fall of Assad, an interest that coincides with that of the Gulf monarchies and for which, probably, we wanted to use the Islamic State as an instrument of contrast, going, in fact, to determine the growth of Sunni terrorism. Erdogan has long been looking for an important role for Turkey and his ambition was initially to revive the Ottoman Empire in a modern version; the changes made to the Turkish society in the religious sense and the constitutional ones have led to a progressive isolation of the country and an increasingly difficult internal situation, culminating in the alleged coup attempt. Erdogan has shown an obsession with the so-called Kurdish danger, which must be interpreted as the occasion for the annulment of internal dissent within the country and as a factor of distraction from national problems, to direct them towards an external enemy. However, the Kurds have proved to be essential for the American strategy in the fight against the Islamic State, guaranteeing the military garrison of the territory. In this new phase of the Syrian war the Americans are militarily defending the Kurds and the democratic forces hostile to Assad, who occupy a territory that includes precious oil wells, a reason that adds a particular interest to the dispute. Current developments say that an approach is already under way between Russia and Iran, already formally allied, with Turkey, which considers Assad's survival in power now a figure acquired as an anti-Kurdish function. This factor is likely to lead to an armed confrontation between two countries that are both within the Atlantic Alliance, generating a new case that can create a legal precedent within it. The continuing situation of possible military incident, due to the contiguity of the armed forces of the different countries in Syria, implies the potential occurrence of an incident capable of giving way to a diplomatic confrontation, which could have even more dangerous consequences than a limited military confrontation . Furthermore, the presence of armed militias acting on behalf of foreign countries constitutes a further factor capable of restarting the Syrian conflict on a large scale and this time with foreign international actors increasingly close.