The reasons for concern of Israel after the demolition of its military plane

The recent incident in Syria, which involved the demolition of a sophisticated Israeli military aircraft, the first since 1982, raises several questions about the future of the Middle East region and the power relations that are going to take shape. The background is the Israeli retaliation for the drone crossing over the territory of Tel Aviv. Israel has carried out a retaliation, as it always happens, which appeared disproportionate to the offense suffered, after that, however, the drone already been shot down. The Israeli air force bombed the base from which the drone had left, causing the death of some Syrians, but a plane was hit by Assad's contractor. The story highlights some points, which are necessary for a particular analysis. The first point concerns the nervousness of Israel, caused by the proximity of the Iranian enemy present in Syria and also in Lebanon through the support given to Hezbollah: this historic moment is where the traditionally enemy forces of Iran and Israel have come closer. The second point concerns a hypothesis that concerns that Israel has been lured into a trap to prove that its military air force, that which allowed it the undisputed military supremacy in the region and in the defense of its borders, can be scratched by the supplied weapons to the Syrians, from Russia, who provided the sophisticated missile systems able to shoot down aircraft equipped with any electronic countermeasure; in fact, the downed plane is a particular type of F16, reinforced compared to standard models and considered unbeatable by the weapons so far held by the army of Damascus. The third factor concerns Iran, which is the builder of the drone, which was supposed to have tasks against the Islamic State and which crossed the Israeli borders: this demonstration could have been directed against Trump, as a warning of what could happen if the United want to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement, making the sanctions heavier and causing a paralysis of the economy of Tehran, with obvious consequences on the internal level. The Iranian government wants to avert this possibility and participation in the provocation against Israel can also be read as a warning to Washington. The fifth point concerns international politics and the role of Moscow. After the demolition of the Israeli plane, Putin, in addition to expressing concern about the dangers to which the Russian military present in SIria will be subjected: a concern that serves not to hide a possible warning against Israel's military policy, is also playing a leading role in the story, recommending prudence and moderation to the parties involved, but if Moscow wants to occupy a sort of role of arbitrator, it would be a referee certainly not impartial, given that the regime of Assad, Iran and Russia are always allies closer, even if the interests of Moscow and Teheran in the Tel Aviv are not converging at all; in the Kremlin it could rather involve a provocation to Israel as an indirect action against the US, but among all these actors on the scene the best relations are those between Russia and Israel. In the Israeli capital, however, the demolition of the military aircraft seems to have aroused an unexpected surprise, because the availability available to Syria, obtained by the Russians, but which can also be accessed by the Iranians, have not been adequately evaluated. If it is practically certain that neither Tehran nor Hizbullah could endanger the integrity of the Israeli state, these new developments show that it is in the possibilities of Israel's enemies to create a strong state of tension precisely on classical military instruments. To this scenario must be added the deadlock of relations with the Palestinians, who were stuck after the decision of the White House to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The widespread discontent that has arisen among the Palestinians, both in the West Bank and in Gaza and therefore both among the moderates and the most extremist groups, could become the object of attention by Israeli enemy forces to open up internal theses, in turn to bring destabilization into the Israeli state. For Tel Aviv, then a particularly difficult time where the use of force would be strongly dosed to take on more diplomatic and compromising attitudes, starting with the blind Palestinian question which a radical change of attitude would be more than necessary. Finally, the question remains of the groups of the caliphate present in the Egyptian Sinai, fought by Cairo, but which have the aim, also for image reasons, of attacking Israel within its territory: a further factor aggravating the general situation.