Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
Politica Internazionale
Cerca nel blog
lunedì 9 luglio 2018
The beginning of the commercial war
After
the introduction of US tariffs, China abandons the usual diplomatic
tone to attack Washington directly, through the "China Daily" government
newspaper. The signal is clear: the commercial war has just begun. The
accusation against the USA is that of blackmail and violation of the
trade rules unilaterally, on the other hand the threats of Trump had
already arrived for some time and the Chinese surprise seems surprising.
If
Beijing believed that the intentions of the American president were not
true, he made an error of assessment, but the tones of the Chinese
newspaper seem more to have the purpose of warning the United States of
the retaliation, ever closer and, together, trying to earn a a sort of alliance against American arrogance, which has the European Union as its address. If
Trump's objective is to favor American workers and businesses, the
result will be difficult to achieve, given that the Chinese response,
moreover in line with the European one, will be to respond with other
duties, which will increase prices in the country. the US, worsening company balance sheets and reducing workers' purchasing power. In
this Washington maneuver, one can not help but see a parallel with the
exit of the United Kingdom from Europe, which is producing heavy
consequences on the British economy and considerable change of opinion
by the public. Trump
does not seem to have reached such a low point yet, but if the effects
of closing it on the market will be so negative, the next mid-term
elections could prove to be a disaster for the Republican party. The
Chinese action to counter the US tariffs will be of a similar sum,
worth about $ 34 billion, to that suffered by Washington, which is
expected to hit companies in areas where Trump has received greater
electoral success. For
now, China has followed the European response mode, that is to
introduce symmetrical measurement duties so as not to raise the level of
the confrontation; however, the White House has already planned to raise the Chinese commodity tariffs by another $ 16 billion in two weeks. As
we can see, the most probable future scenario is that of an escalation
of the commercial war, which can not fail to have political
repercussions in terms of international equilibrium. In fact it is impossible not to think about the role of Europe in a situation that includes such a development. Brussels
has also been hit by US tariffs and this has led to greater closeness
with China due to the affinity that has developed on the issues of free
trade. However,
approaching Beijing must be treated with caution, given the
undemocratic regime that exists in the Chinese country, with too many
victims of repression and lack of fundamental rights. China
can be a partner from the commercial point of view, with ample room for
development, if we want to continue to overlook the lack of guarantees
to its citizens, but it can not become anything more. On
the other hand there is the historic alliance with the United States
and the Atlantic Alliance, which remains a cornerstone of European
defense; the
removal caused by the trade war can also have repercussions on
diplomatic ties but must not undermine the regime of military alliances,
despite the many provocations of Trump, even if it is clear that the
change in the international scene can lead to unprecedented changes. The
success of nationalist and populist political formations, which are
politically in agreement with the US president, could be a further
factor in the development of the general picture: a weakened Europe in
its central structures could choose, or could choose one of its members
individually, to approach Trump
through a policy of closing and opposing China and, ultimately, the
whole scaffolding of the free market, in the name of a local
protectionism, that is an exercise of national sovereignty interpreted
with the closure towards the world. It
is a possible development that the current political situation can
favor but which would bring the world back to a previous situation that
was believed to have been overcome. The question is whether the world economic system can withstand such a retreat without considerable social repercussions; the
theme, that is, is whether the effects of a further increase in social
inequalities are predicted, due to a general impoverishment caused by
the ever increasing wealth accumulated in ever lower percentages of the
population; because this seems to be the direction that the closure of the free market seems to be able to produce. An even worse effect of globalization than populism wanted to fight as the first enemy.
Iscriviti a:
Commenti sul post (Atom)
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento