The uncertainty of London for the agreement with Europe

Beyond the approval of an agreement on leaving the European Union, which, fundamentally, nobody likes, there are very different positions, both in the chamber of the municipalities, the only part of the British parliament that can decide, that in the English society ; this situation returns a deeply divided country, a feature already highlighted after the outcome of the referendum, even within homogeneous political and social categories. The deep division promises, whatever the decision that will be taken, to deepen in the immediate future, opening up very worrying scenarios for the British country. On the one hand, the proponents of the exit at any cost and without negotiation, see what was betrayed, which, according to them, was the real reason for the referendum result: the reconquest of absolute sovereignty and unconditional vis-à-vis Brussels; but the exasperation that led to the decision to leave Europe, also the result of deliberately false and deceptive propaganda, seems to have eased, thanks to the growing fear of the effects on the economy and on employment that the abandonment of Europe could to determine. However, the electorate favorable to the exit from Brussels is still seen by British politicians as dangerously susceptible to both sides. The Prime Minister has opted for a less intransigent exit, as a result of grueling negotiations that have produced a draft agreement of 585 pages and 185 articles and which provides for a transition of twenty-one months, which can be extended. The position of the government in charge in London was to try to mediate between the various positions of those who want the exit and also between those who are still opposed, with the result of displeasing everyone. According to various opinions, the agreement, which will have to pass the parliamentary vote, does not take a unequivocal position and leaves open various possibilities in the relationship with Europe, with the aim of gaining more time. Without a definitive hypothesis the British country could remain halfway, depriving itself of the possibility of deciding autonomously, but also of remaining without the benefits of belonging to the European Union. A sort of limbo that would greatly limit the possibility of maneuvering in London and would make the referendum result futile but without meeting the favor of those who wanted to remain inside the Union. For some, a new referendum, with a clearer situation, with a more informed citizenship and less conditioned by misleading propaganda, would be the most appropriate means to resolve the issue. This conviction could be shared in a general scenario of dissatisfaction, despite the recourse to a new popular consultation both experienced by a substantial part of politics as a failure and as a dangerous potential to discredit the parties and favor dangerous situations for democracy. These dangers, however, do not seem to be able to influence a political structure like the English one, which has within it the necessary tools to ward off authoritarian drifts. The solution of the referendum with clear questions that could contain the road to be taken could favor a clearer decision, not to expose the government to a rejection in Parliament; also because Brussels does not seem willing to prolong the question without a definition. A fall of the government must be taken into consideration for the scenarios it could open: new elections could block the negotiations with a tightening of Europe able to exacerbate the internal discussions of the British country; we must also bear in mind that the opposition to the exit from Europe is present both in the conservatives and in the Labor camps, just as part of the two major parties is in favor of a solution like Norway, which is not a member of the Union, but belongs to the European Economic Area, while the liberals and the Scottish separatists are firmly opposed to the removal from Brussels. The situation, in short, is anything but definite, even if the agreement should be approved: the time in which it will be in force will define the situation, how to disrupt it, dragging the country into an uncertainty that can not fail to be reflected in the economic field , political and social.