Would Russia be able to annex Belarus?

The Union between Russia and Belarus, a supranational entity present since 1996, could be overcome, with the annexation of Minsk in Moscow. The clues that lead to the completion of this scenario are different and are framed, first of all, in the recession of the Belarusian country, which strongly needs Russian raw materials and is in difficulty with payments. For Putin it would be an opportunity that has many advantages. The first is geopolitical: the Kremlin fears for Belarus, a destiny similar to the Ukrainian one, where the American influence has become so preponderant as to take Kiev away from the Russian area. That of recreating the space of influence of the former Soviet Union is a programmatic plan of the Russian president, who has always considered essential the sphere of territorial influence of the communist empire, as a necessary condition to give back to Moscow the status of great power lost with the collapse of the Soviet regime. Despite being a small country, Belarus, has in its geographical position its great importance for Putin, because it borders with Poland, and therefore with the European Union, with two of the Baltic countries and with the northern part of Ukraine. If the Belarusian territory were to become a full member of the Russian nation, Moscow could exert a completely different pressure on a number of international parties that it considers adverse. First, it could threaten the stability of the Baltic countries and thus of the Atlantic Alliance directly and, indirectly, the United States. Threat that is double for Poland, a great US supporter of Trump and a member of the European Union, while Ukraine could be threatened not only by the eastern flank, but also by the northern flank. It should be remembered that the recent abandonment of the United States from the Treaty on Nuclear Weapons has opened a scenario where atomic rearmament is the possibility that can be better foreseen and verified. Nor should we forget the sanctions regime to which the Russian country is subjected, which could turn into a resentment that threatens Western countries practically on their border. An annexation of Belarus would allow the Kremlin to have a sort of military platform from which to carry out exercises, keep armed contingents or, worse, missile bases very close to Western countries. What would happen is the repetition of the balance of terror in a globalized context, where the populist tendencies of some Eastern European countries could represent a political variable to be interpreted as an element of novelty in the regional dualism between the US and Russia. There is also the subject European Union, which could play a role of mediation, especially in its own interests, but Brussels will have to equip itself with all the necessary tools, such as a univocal direction in foreign policy and its own supranational military force. Nor should the Chinese attitude be neglected, which has always been based on foreign policy on non-intervention, which could vary according to the economic and even strategic opportunities of the moment. The international scenario, could therefore be heavily destabilized if Moscow were to extend its sovereignty over Belarus, but also from the internal point of view of Russia's power structures, the annexation of Minsk could change the rules in force, favoring Putin for the maintenance of his current role as Russian president, who, with the rules in force in the Russian constitution, will no longer be renewable at the expiration of 18 March 2024. The annexation could overcome current Russia and determine the birth of a new sovereign subject with new constitutional rules also regarding the duration of the head of state. For Putin it would therefore be an opportunity to prolong his power in a legal manner, without upsetting the rules in force, but creating new ones. If this opportunity were to appear, it seems highly probable that Putin will take advantage of it, too many elements seem to be in his favor, while the international community could not plead that findings are not contrary to international law, once again undergoing the initiative of the head of the Kremlin.