Blog di discussione su problemi di relazioni e politica internazionale; un osservatorio per capire la direzione del mondo. Blog for discussion on problems of relations and international politics; an observatory to understand the direction of the world.
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martedì 26 marzo 2019
Trump's victory over the Russian question is also the defeat of the Democrats
With the question of Russian influence on the elections now virtually concluded, Trump emerges from a situation of objective difficulty, which did not, however, correspond to the perception of US citizens. According to the most recent reports, in fact, only 28% of those interviewed were in favor of a censorship procedure against the president or, worse, the start of the impeachement; this despite only 30% believed Trump's reasons for his ties with Moscow. Even if it is a small part, although selected for statistical purposes, the resulting opinion indicates that the issue of Russian influence over Trump's election is a subject that does not affect the judgment of the White House tenant. The perception is that Americans are far from believing that Russia is actually capable of influencing the United States as a nation and as a political line. In fact, recent times have marked an ever greater distance in the relations between the two countries, especially far from the expectations of Trump himself and Putin. If, on the one hand, the mechanisms provided by the American political system prove to work, maintaining a diplomatic line always distant from Moscow, on the other hand the feeling that there is an absence of need to have a president far from any doubt about his election , shows how Americans are conditioned by a vision far from political affairs, which seems to be replaced by a sense of greater pragmatism towards the practical aspects of life. It turns out to be significant that Trump's current appreciation stands at 39%, certainly far, but not too much from the 47% that Obama stood at the same time as his presidency. It is necessary to consider the many negative elements, above all of image, which have characterized, until now the Trump presidency: a president who has seriously risked being investigated and who is still followed with great critical attention by the American media, precisely because of the suspicions of to have lied about ties with Russia during the electoral campaign, a topic that was certainly not exhausted with the prosecution's investigation. However, the figure of confidence in Trump, if it is linked to the survey that expressed 70% of the data in the lack of confidence in the president's reasons, also highlights that the American country is not only pragmatic, but also disconnected with political reality, that is, there is a discrepancy between trust in institutions, which should be demanded, and real behavior. If we take note of this fact, we must think about how the Russian question has become detached from the American public and, therefore, the strategies of the democrats can be counterproductive. But the problem does not concern only the internal sphere of the American country: the first world power of the planet has highlighted an intrinsic weakness, which only the institutional mechanisms have partly protected. The election of Trump, whether it occurred under the influence of the Kremlin or not, has altered the landscape of international politics in general and of Western politics in particular. Current events present the case of Israel for which Trump sanctions sovereignty over the Golan: an act contrary to any diplomatic practice, but which is not the first and will not be the last. The American president represents a variable on the international chessboard, which is not always predictable and those who hoped for his impeachment must renounce this possibility, first of all the democrats, who must concentrate on issues with a broader view and get out of the logic linked to Russian affairs, to have a horizon that can convince an electoral audience that is anything but attuned to the reasons against Trump. If on one side of the electorate the aversion to Trump is a winning aspect, this will not be enough to oust the incumbent president from his current position in the upcoming elections. This reveals the need for a new strategy, which may break with candidates like Sanders or continuity, but nothing should be taken for granted.
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