Politica Internazionale

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giovedì 6 giugno 2019

China and Russia increasingly allied

The meeting in China of Chinese leader Xi Jinping with Putin has signaled that the closeness between the two countries is very strong. This is not a surprise, the two heads of state met about 30 times in six years and have shown an ever-increasing harmony, favored also by the worsening of relations between the two countries with the United States. From the international point of view, the relationship between the two countries is taking on greater importance for the contingent situation that both the two countries are going through: for Russia, in fact, every opportunity becomes relevant to get out of the international isolation imposed by the West, after the invasion of Crimea and the Donbass conflict; while China is engaged in the trade duty conflict imposed by President Trump. Despite the already good relations between the two countries, China and Russia are practically obliged to increase mutual harmony, also to combat the negative signals coming from the economy. Beijing has just seen its growth prospects lowered by the International Monetary Fund, precisely because of the increase in US tariffs, while Russia needs Chinese investments to fight an economic crisis, which has structural reasons, because it is essentially based on raw materials, as well as due, also due to the effects of the Western embargo. The increase in relations with China could mean for Moscow an increase in these investments and the achievements reached in the sectors of aviation, energy, defense, technology, agriculture and telecommunications show that the direction undertaken envisages a greater Chinese commitment in the Russian country. The aversion of the United States for these two countries has developed the idea between Moscow and Beijing of reducing the use of the dollar as an exchange currency and increasing a system that favors the use of the ruble and the yuan in bilateral trade. Quantitatively, China's sacmiBs with Russia, which has become Moscow's main trading partner, amount to 89,000 million euros, and even though, from the point of view of investments in Russia, China is still lagging behind the US and the EU, Beijing intends to fill this gap. Even with regard to the international scenarios the two countries have very similar visions, as for Venezuela, where they are opposed to foreign intervention or the common opposition to US sanctions against Iran over the Iranian nuclear issue. Likewise, they condemned Washington for the unilateral withdrawal from the medium-range nuclear weapons treaty, which resulted in Moscow's subsequent withdrawal. Finally, concern was expressed about the possible increase in space weapons, as was the common position on Syria and North Korea. The two countries, in short, with an ever closer bond can concretely create a dangerous alliance for world balances, which can represent a roadway to be carefully evaluated when it will be necessary to analyze future scenarios and their potential effects. This alliance has been favored by a rigidity, moreover understandable, on the part of the West, which risks producing effects contrary to those desired by Washington and by the Western allies and on which it will be good to make a careful and punctual reflection.

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