Does Trump really want to impose duties on Mexico?

The war on duties that the White house undertook with Beijing, had as a side result that of increasing exports from Mexico to the USA, creating an economic imbalance of about 22.700 million dollars, in the first three months of 2019, in favor of Mexican country. For Trump's vision, which does not want negative deficits with every single country, the situation with Mexico is a matter to be resolved. However, the interchange with the Mexican country has solved, at least in part, the lack of import from China for American companies, which, in fact, are opposed to the introduction of duties against Mexico, precisely because of the difficulty of developing their products . Politically the question is even more complex, because it involves two aspects of American politics: the first is illegal immigration from Mexico, used as a means of avoiding the introduction of duties, the second concerns the rules of the free trade treaty between the USA , Mexico and Canada, freely subscribed by the United States, which would be violated by the American president. Trump's blackmail of illegal immigration would force Mexico to contain emigration to the United States from both the Mexican and central and south American countries, using the Mexican route to reach the US, within its borders. In a nutshell Trump would replace the wall he failed to build with a virtual wall built by the threat of introducing 5% to 25% increasing duties on Mexican products, if Mexico City does not contain the traffic of people to the United States. Now, net of humanitarian assessments, the possible introduction of these customs tariffs would be a violation of the free trade treaty, whose negotiations lasted a year and a half and which Trump himself signed. From the point of view of the reliability of the president and of the USA themselves, this would be the umpteenth proof of unreliability of the tenant of the White House and, therefore, of the United States itself, which would see their international prestige diminished for the umpteenth time. However, there is a problem, which has remained relatively hidden until now: the benefits of the treaty, for all three signatory countries, would not be so obvious; moreover, within the US Congress almost all the Democrats, but also various members of the Republican party, would be against the ratification of the agreement. This state of affairs could have created the conditions for a tactical operation by Trump, to try to modify the conditions of the treaty and, together, take the opportunity to bring the center of attention to the problem of irregular migrants, which was part of the its electoral program. As for the threat that the imposition of duties will become concrete, however, as already mentioned, the conditions of American industry would not allow the practice of this policy, which would damage US production; Trump, aware of this unfavorable condition, combined with the opposition of the Congress, seems, in the end, to have wanted to exploit to his advantage a situation on which he cannot actually affect. The calculation of the American president seems to be directed at pleasing the part of his electoral supporters further to the right, those against illegal immigration, the component that was most liked during the election campaign, the promise of the construction of the wall. By the way, 2020 is near and the electoral campaign is about to begin.